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FINAL · ESPN2 · CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUM
USASouth Alabama
564-2 · 2-0 Sun Belt
56
FINAL
ARSTArkansas State
492-4 · 0-2 Sun Belt
49
USA +3 COVEROVER 60.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP USA 46%→POSTGAME WE USA 64%
Centennial Bank Stadium · 14,237
Postgame WE
64%USA · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.40ARST +0.28
Success rate
49%ARST 64%
Turnovers
1–2≈ 10.0 pts swing
vs model
−7proj ARST by 1.6
Plays · pace
127proj 130 · 28.3s

Win probability · full game

USA LOW 25% · Q2 5:48 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.0

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1South Alabama
    Lewis intercepts Owens
    (01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass intercepted by #18 M.Lewis at ASU16 broken up by #48 J.Williams #18 M.Lewis return 4 yards to the ASU12 (#52 M.Myers)
    Q2 1:44 · 1st & 10 ARST 23 · −5.4 ARST EPA
    Q2 1:44 · 1st & 10 ARST 23 · −5.4 ARST EPA
    +.16
  2. 2South Alabama
    Lewis sacks Owens, −2
    (03:58) Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ASU28 (#18 M.Lewis), fumble by #9 T.Owens recovered by USA #11 P.Shattuck at ASU28, End Of Play
    Q2 3:58 · 2nd & 5 ARST 30 · −4.6 ARST EPA
    Q2 3:58 · 2nd & 5 ARST 30 · −4.6 ARST EPA
    +.12
  3. 3South Alabama
    Darby intercepts Owens
    (08:21) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass intercepted by #24 D.Darby at USA16 #24 D.Darby return 58 yards to the ASU26 (#2 C.Cobb) PENALTY ASU Holding declined
    Q3 8:21 · 2nd & 10 USA 14 · −8.7 ARST EPA
    Q3 8:21 · 2nd & 10 USA 14 · −8.7 ARST EPA
    +.12
  4. 4Arkansas State
    Owens 24-yd pass to Little
    (02:47) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #11 T.Little caught at USA09, for 24 yards to the USA04 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 2:47 · 1st & 10 USA 28 · +1.6 EPA
    Q1 2:47 · 1st & 10 USA 28 · +1.6 EPA
    −.11
  5. 5Arkansas State
    Owens 19-yd TD to Summers
    (13:00) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at USA00, for 19 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:56, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USA Face Mask (#90 E.Smiley) 15 yards from USA00 to USA03, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)
    Q2 13:00 · 2nd & 5 · 14–7 → 14–14 · +2.6 EPA
    Q2 13:00 · 14–7 → 14–14 · +2.6 EPA
    −.10

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 127 plays

Play-by-play

Box score

Team box score, South Alabama at Arkansas State
StatUSAARST
Total yards372516
Plays6070
Yards / play6.27.4
EPA / play+0.40+0.28
Success rate49%64%
Explosive plays712
Havoc rate9%7%
3rd down3–108–10
Pts / opportunity4.674.08
Turnovers12
Time of possession——
Postgame WE64%36%