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FINAL · ESPN · LAVELL EDWARDS STADIUM
ISUIowa State
103-3 · 1-2 Big 12
10
FINAL
BYUBYU
245-0 · 3-0 Big 12
24
BYU −11.5 COVERUNDER 46.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP BYU 78%→POSTGAME WE BYU 82%
LaVell Edwards Stadium · 64,632
Postgame WE
82%BYU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.25ISU −0.12
Success rate
51%ISU 28%
Turnovers
0–0
vs model
+14proj BYU by 13.0
Plays · pace
116proj 122 · 31.0s

Win probability · full game

BYU LOW 77% · Q2 4:55 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 2.9

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Iowa State
    Tonga run, no gain
    (05:00) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU46 (#36 B.Esser), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
    Q2 5:00 · 4th & 1 ISU 46 · −3.3 BYU EPA
    Q2 5:00 · 4th & 1 ISU 46 · −3.3 BYU EPA
    −.08
  2. 2BYU
    Bachmeier 26-yd run
    (12:39) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 26 yards gain to the ISU25, out of bounds at ISU25, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 12:39 · 3rd & 3 BYU 49 · +2.8 EPA
    Q1 12:39 · 3rd & 3 BYU 49 · +2.8 EPA
    +.05
  3. 3BYU
    Bachmeier 75-yd TD to Glasker
    (01:18) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep middle to #1 L.Glasker caught at ISU46, for 75 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:09, 1ST DOWN #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)
    Q3 1:18 · 3rd & 6 · 14–3 → 21–3 · +7.5 EPA
    Q3 1:18 · 14–3 → 21–3 · +7.5 EPA
    +.05
  4. 4BYU
    Bachmeier 27-yd pass to Kasper
    (10:54) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #3 K.Kasper caught at BYU35, for 27 yards to the BYU47 (#1 K.Washington), 1ST DOWN
    Q3 10:54 · 3rd & 6 BYU 20 · +3.2 EPA
    Q3 10:54 · 3rd & 6 BYU 20 · +3.2 EPA
    +.04
  5. 5BYU
    Bachmeier 63-yd pass to Saleapaga
    (02:15) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep left to #2 R.Saleapaga II caught at ISU47, for 63 yards to the ISU05 (#3 S.Johnson; #19 E.Lemos), 1ST DOWN
    Q2 2:15 · 2nd & 7 BYU 32 · +4.4 EPA
    Q2 2:15 · 2nd & 7 BYU 32 · +4.4 EPA
    +.04

Player EPA

Total · game