Texas A&M vs Missouri · havoc

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FINAL · ABC · MEMORIAL STADIUM

TAMUTexas A&M

63-3 · 1-3 SEC

6

FINAL

MIZMissouri

275-1 · 2-1 SEC

27

MIZ −4.5 COVERUNDER 50.5MODEL EDGE HIT

PREGAME WP MIZ 69%→POSTGAME WE MIZ 80%

Memorial Stadium · 63,609

Postgame WE: 80%MIZ · 10k sims; How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play: −0.06TAMU −0.43
Success rate: 39%TAMU 29%
Turnovers: 1–1≈ 1.0 pts swing
vs model: +21proj MIZ by 8.0
Plays · pace: 132proj 137 · 27.3s

Win probability · full game

MIZ LOW 46% · Q1 9:46 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.9

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|

1
Simmons 32-yd TD to Lee
Cayden Lee 32 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)
Q2 12:58 · 3rd & 4 · 0–3 → 7–3 · +4.2 EPA
Q2 12:58 · 0–3 → 7–3 · +4.2 EPA
+.13
2
Dotson intercepts Reed
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass intercepted by #22 E.Dotson at Mizzou00 broken up by #4 T.Greco, Touchback
Q1 8:19 · 3rd & 2 MIZ 6 · −5.8 TAMU EPA
Q1 8:19 · 3rd & 2 MIZ 6 · −5.8 TAMU EPA
+.12
3
Craig 50-yd FG good
Blake Craig 50 Yd Field Goal
Q2 8:40 · 4th & 8 · 7–3 → 10–3 · +2.5 EPA
Q2 8:40 · 7–3 → 10–3 · +2.5 EPA
+.11
4
Greco intercepts Reed
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass intercepted by #4 T.Greco at A&M36 #4 T.Greco return 2 yards to the A&M34, End Of Play
Q2 10:08 · 1st & 10 TAMU 25 · −4.1 TAMU EPA
Q2 10:08 · 1st & 10 TAMU 25 · −4.1 TAMU EPA
+.10
5
Reed 5-yd run
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 5 yards gain to the A&M20 (#15 S.Banner; #5 N.Rodriguez)
Q2 12:31 · 1st & 20 TAMU 15 · −0.9 TAMU EPA
Q2 12:31 · 1st & 20 TAMU 15 · −0.9 TAMU EPA
+.08

Player EPA

Total · game

Daymion Sanford · LBINT · 2 TKL
+5.1
Cayden Lee · WR7 REC · 94 YDS · 1 TD
+5.0
TK Norman · WR3 REC · 57 YDS
+4.7
Austin Simmons · QB14/28 · 147 YDS · 1 TD · 1 INT · 24 RUSH YDS
−8.1
Marcel Reed · QB19/39 · 189 YDS · 2 INT
−21.2

Full box score All 132 plays

Play-by-play

Box score

Team box score, Texas A&M at Missouri
Stat	TAMU	MIZ
Total yards	216	394
Plays	62	72
Yards / play	3.5	5.5
EPA / play	−0.43	−0.06
Success rate	29%	39%
Explosive plays	4	11
Havoc rate	11%	18%
3rd down	4–18	6–16
Pts / opportunity	0.75	2.86
Turnovers	1	1
Time of possession	—	—
Postgame WE	20%	80%