

WAKEWake Forest
385-1 · 3-1 ACCFINAL


NCSUNC State
143-3 · 1-2 ACCWAKE −4 COVERUNDER 56.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP WAKE 56%→POSTGAME WE WAKE 93%
Carter-Finley Stadium · 56,919- Postgame WE
- 93%WAKE · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.32NCSU −0.17
- Success rate
- 48%NCSU 40%
- Turnovers
- 0–1≈ 4.4 pts swing
- vs model
- +24proj WAKE by 2.5
- Plays · pace
- 130proj 135 · 27.7s
Win probability · full game
WAKE LOW 30% · Q2 5:22 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.2Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1

Bailey 24-yd TD to Robinson(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete deep right to #82 C.Robinson caught at WF01, for 24 yards to the WF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WF Holding declined #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #96 J.Waller, LS: #92 A.Arias)Q1 8:21 · 3rd & 5 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +3.5 EPAQ1 8:21 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +3.5 EPA−.10 - 2

Bailey 17-yd pass to Douglas(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short middle to #19 P.Douglas caught at WF45, for 17 yards to the WF40 (#5 D.Patterson), 1ST DOWNQ1 11:25 · 3rd & 5 NCSU 43 · +2.6 EPAQ1 11:25 · 3rd & 5 NCSU 43 · +2.6 EPA−.09 - 3

Lopez 52-yd pass to Foley(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete deep middle to #10 J.Foley caught at NCSU29, for 52 yards to the NCSU11 (#14 J.Sensabaugh), 1ST DOWNQ3 9:04 · 2nd & 9 WAKE 37 · +4.4 EPAQ3 9:04 · 2nd & 9 WAKE 37 · +4.4 EPA+.09 - 4

Lopez 8-yd pass to Hernandez(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 C.Hernandez caught at WF33, for 8 yards to the WF36 (#35 L.Hodge; #29 B.Barnhardt), 1ST DOWNQ2 2:23 · 3rd & 7 WAKE 28 · +1.5 EPAQ2 2:23 · 3rd & 7 WAKE 28 · +1.5 EPA+.09 - 5

Bailey 12-yd pass to Gause(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #7 D.Gause caught at WF16, for 12 yards to the WF08 (#21 A.Hall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNQ2 11:45 · 2nd & 10 WAKE 20 · +1.6 EPAQ2 11:45 · 2nd & 10 WAKE 20 · +1.6 EPA−.09
Player EPA
Total · game

Gio Lopez · QB26/33 · 303 YDS · 3 TD · 10 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD+26.1
Carlos Hernandez · WR12 REC · 117 YDS · 1 TD · FUM+14.1
Jack Foley · WR8 REC · 156 YDS · 1 TD · FUM+8.8
Vincent Firenze · LBFF · PBU · 8 TKL+6.3
CJ Bailey · QB28/39 · 241 YDS · 1 TD · FUM · 3 SACKS−6.6
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 387 | 258 |
| Plays | 69 | 64 |
| Yards / play | 5.6 | 4.0 |
| EPA / play | +0.32 | −0.17 |
| Success rate | 48% | 40% |
| Explosive plays | 10 | 4 |
| Havoc rate | 18% | 8% |
| 3rd down | 7–13 | 6–15 |
| Pts / opportunity | 4.75 | 1.75 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Time of possession | 31:57 | 28:03 |
| Postgame WE | 93% | 7% |

