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FINAL · ESPN2 · BOONE PICKENS STADIUM
UCFUCF
283-3 · 1-2 Big 12
28
FINAL
OKSTOklahoma State
424-1 · 2-0 Big 12
42
OKST −10.5 COVEROVER 53.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP OKST 46%→POSTGAME WE OKST 79%
Boone Pickens Stadium · 52,168
Postgame WE
79%OKST · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.26UCF +0.05
Success rate
53%UCF 43%
Turnovers
1–1≈ 3.3 pts swing
vs model
−14proj UCF by 1.9
Plays · pace
142proj 132 · 25.4s

Win probability · full game

OKST LOW 58% · Q1 2:37 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.8

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Oklahoma State
    Jenkins fumble, OSU recovers, returned for a TD
    (10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush left for 11 yards loss to the UCF28 fumbled by #12 K.Jenkins at UCF34 recovered by OSU #1 E.Jackson at UCF28 #1 E.Jackson return 28 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:32. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD #17 D.Mestemaker rush attempt Successful #17 D.Mestemaker rush attempt Successful PENALTY #17 D.Mestemaker rush attempt Successful PENALTY UCF Offside declined
    Q4 10:32 · 2nd & 8 · 27–21 → 35–21 · −8.5 UCF EPA
    Q4 10:32 · 27–21 → 35–21 · −8.5 UCF EPA
    +.16
  2. 2UCF
    Jenkins 1-yd TD to Brousseau
    (10:10) No Huddle #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #88 G.Brousseau caught at OSU00, for 1 yard to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:08 #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks)
    Q1 10:10 · 3rd & Goal · 0–0 → 0–7 · +1.5 EPA
    Q1 10:10 · 0–0 → 0–7 · +1.5 EPA
    −.10
  3. 3UCF
    Jenkins 26-yd pass to Charles
    (00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete deep left to #9 W.Charles caught at OSU09, for 26 yards to the OSU03 (#2 I.Chisom), 1ST DOWN
    Q2 0:22 · 2nd & 20 OKST 29 · +3.0 EPA
    Q2 0:22 · 2nd & 20 OKST 29 · +3.0 EPA
    −.10
  4. 4Oklahoma State
    Mestemaker 13-yd pass to Young
    (07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #10 W.Young caught at UCF30, for 13 yards to the UCF26 (#4 B.Marshall), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 7:12 · 4th & 5 UCF 39 · +3.7 EPA
    Q1 7:12 · 4th & 5 UCF 39 · +3.7 EPA
    +.08
  5. 5Oklahoma State
    Swint run, −4
    (12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush right for 4 yards loss to the UCF43 (#2 I.Chisom)
    Q3 12:24 · 2nd & 10 UCF 47 · −2.0 UCF EPA
    Q3 12:24 · 2nd & 10 UCF 47 · −2.0 UCF EPA
    +.08

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 142 plays