UCFUCF
283-3 · 1-2 Big 12FINAL
OKSTOklahoma State
424-1 · 2-0 Big 12OKST −10.5 COVEROVER 53.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP OKST 46%→POSTGAME WE OKST 79%
Boone Pickens Stadium · 52,168- Postgame WE
- 79%OKST · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.26UCF +0.05
- Success rate
- 53%UCF 43%
- Turnovers
- 1–1≈ 3.3 pts swing
- vs model
- −14proj UCF by 1.9
- Plays · pace
- 142proj 132 · 25.4s
Win probability · full game
OKST LOW 58% · Q1 2:37 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.8Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Jenkins fumble, OSU recovers, returned for a TD(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush left for 11 yards loss to the UCF28 fumbled by #12 K.Jenkins at UCF34 recovered by OSU #1 E.Jackson at UCF28 #1 E.Jackson return 28 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:32. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD #17 D.Mestemaker rush attempt Successful #17 D.Mestemaker rush attempt Successful PENALTY #17 D.Mestemaker rush attempt Successful PENALTY UCF Offside declinedQ4 10:32 · 2nd & 8 · 27–21 → 35–21 · −8.5 UCF EPAQ4 10:32 · 27–21 → 35–21 · −8.5 UCF EPA+.16 - 2
Jenkins 1-yd TD to Brousseau(10:10) No Huddle #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #88 G.Brousseau caught at OSU00, for 1 yard to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:08 #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks)Q1 10:10 · 3rd & Goal · 0–0 → 0–7 · +1.5 EPAQ1 10:10 · 0–0 → 0–7 · +1.5 EPA−.10 - 3Jenkins 26-yd pass to Charles(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete deep left to #9 W.Charles caught at OSU09, for 26 yards to the OSU03 (#2 I.Chisom), 1ST DOWNQ2 0:22 · 2nd & 20 OKST 29 · +3.0 EPAQ2 0:22 · 2nd & 20 OKST 29 · +3.0 EPA−.10
- 4Mestemaker 13-yd pass to Young(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #10 W.Young caught at UCF30, for 13 yards to the UCF26 (#4 B.Marshall), 1ST DOWNQ1 7:12 · 4th & 5 UCF 39 · +3.7 EPAQ1 7:12 · 4th & 5 UCF 39 · +3.7 EPA+.08
- 5Swint run, −4(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush right for 4 yards loss to the UCF43 (#2 I.Chisom)Q3 12:24 · 2nd & 10 UCF 47 · −2.0 UCF EPAQ3 12:24 · 2nd & 10 UCF 47 · −2.0 UCF EPA+.08
Player EPA
Total · game
- Drew Mestemaker · QB19/28 · 304 YDS · 2 TD · 2 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD+18.8
- Josh Derry · WR11 REC · 84 YDS · 1 TD+10.4
- Keyone Jenkins · QB30/42 · 265 YDS · 4 TD · 1 INT · FUM+9.6
- Justin Bowick · WR6 REC · 98 YDS · 1 TD+8.9
- Antione Jackson · DBFF · PBU · 3 TKL+6.4
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | UCF | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 375 | 414 |
| Plays | 83 | 60 |
| Yards / play | 4.5 | 6.9 |
| EPA / play | +0.05 | +0.26 |
| Success rate | 43% | 53% |
| Explosive plays | 5 | 9 |
| Havoc rate | 14% | 10% |
| 3rd down | 7–16 | 4–9 |
| Pts / opportunity | 3.11 | 3.78 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Time of possession | 35:15 | 24:45 |
| Postgame WE | 21% | 79% |