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FINAL · ESPN · ACRISURE STADIUM
UNCNorth Carolina
213-2 · 1-1 ACC
21
FINAL
PITTPittsburgh
175-1 · 2-1 ACC
17
UNC +3.5 COVERUNDER 47.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP UNC 23%→POSTGAME WE UNC 60%
Acrisure Stadium · 51,416
Postgame WE
60%UNC · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.08PITT −0.14
Success rate
39%PITT 41%
Turnovers
2–2≈ 0.4 pts swing
vs model
−4proj PITT by 12.1
Plays · pace
134proj 127 · 26.9s

Win probability · full game

UNC LOW 15% · Q2 10:00 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.4

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1North Carolina
    Edwards 75-yd TD to Easter
    (12:43) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete deep right to #84 S.Easter caught at Pitt50, for 75 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:36, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt)
    Q4 12:43 · 1st & 10 · 14–17 → 21–17 · +6.8 EPA
    Q4 12:43 · 14–17 → 21–17 · +6.8 EPA
    +.35
  2. 2North Carolina
    Wright 1-yd TD run
    (02:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNC30 (#15 D.McDonald), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (02:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC30 fumbled by #11 L.Wright at UNC30 forced by #15 D.McDonald recovered by UNC #4 J.Thompson at UNC30 #4 J.Thompson return 70 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:51)
    Q4 2:03 · 4th & 2 UNC 31 · turnover on downs · −2.9 PITT EPA
    Q4 2:03 · 4th & 2 UNC 31 · −2.9 PITT EPA
    +.21
  3. 3Pittsburgh
    Wright 1-yd TD run
    (12:49) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:47 #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt)
    Q4 12:49 · 1st & Goal · 14–10 → 14–17 · +0.7 EPA
    Q4 12:49 · 14–10 → 14–17 · +0.7 EPA
    −.18
  4. 4Pittsburgh
    Harrison intercepts Edwards
    (06:31) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass intercepted by #21 S.Harrison at Pitt37 #21 S.Harrison return 22 yards to the UNC41 (#14 C.Sadler)
    Q4 6:31 · 3rd & 3 UNC 30 · −3.4 UNC EPA
    Q4 6:31 · 3rd & 3 UNC 30 · −3.4 UNC EPA
    −.15
  5. 5North Carolina
    Geriner incomplete to Hicks, turnover on downs
    (04:15) Shotgun #15 H.Geriner pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Hicks thrown to UNC15, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
    Q4 4:15 · 4th & 2 UNC 21 · turnover on downs · −3.2 PITT EPA
    Q4 4:15 · 4th & 2 UNC 21 · −3.2 PITT EPA
    +.15

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 134 plays