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FINAL · ESPN+ · DOYT L. PERRY STADIUM
SACSacramento State
101-5 · 0-3 MAC
10
FINAL
BGSUBowling Green
382-4 · 2-0 MAC
38
BGSU −9.5 COVEROVER 43.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP BGSU 59%→POSTGAME WE BGSU 94%
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 12,559
Postgame WE
94%BGSU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.13SAC −0.25
Success rate
43%SAC 40%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 8.5 pts swing
vs model
+28proj BGSU by 3.9
Plays · pace
120proj 124 · 30.0s

Win probability · full game

BGSU LOW 60% · Q1 0:30 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 2.8

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Sacramento State
    Silvera intercepts Kastantin
    (13:35) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass intercepted by #1 B.Silvera at Sac St46 QB hurried by #18 F.Puloka, End Of Play
    Q1 13:35 · 1st & 10 BGSU 44 · −4.9 BGSU EPA
    Q1 13:35 · 1st & 10 BGSU 44 · −4.9 BGSU EPA
    −.12
  2. 2Sacramento State
    Swinney 3-yd run
    (12:01) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush right for 3 yards gain to the BGSU44 (#10 A.Hines III; #0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 12:01 · 4th & 3 BGSU 47 · +3.3 EPA
    Q1 12:01 · 4th & 3 BGSU 47 · +3.3 EPA
    −.07
  3. 3Sacramento State
    Sharman 6-yd pass to Coleman
    (09:12) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at BGSU11, for 6 yards to the BGSU11 (#1 D.Braxton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 9:12 · 3rd & 5 BGSU 17 · +1.3 EPA
    Q1 9:12 · 3rd & 5 BGSU 17 · +1.3 EPA
    −.06
  4. 4Bowling Green
    Dendy 6-yd run
    (11:09) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush left for 6 yards gain to the Sac St20 (#1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWN
    Q2 11:09 · 3rd & 2 SAC 26 · +0.9 EPA
    Q2 11:09 · 3rd & 2 SAC 26 · +0.9 EPA
    +.06
  5. 5Bowling Green
    Kastantin 9-yd TD to Saffold
    (00:11) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #19 J.Saffold caught at Sac St00, for 9 yards to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:04 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)
    Q2 0:11 · 3rd & Goal · 10–3 → 17–3 · +4.0 EPA
    Q2 0:11 · 10–3 → 17–3 · +4.0 EPA
    +.05

Player EPA

Total · game

Play-by-play

Box score

Team box score, Sacramento State at Bowling Green
StatSACBGSU
Total yards215355
Plays6358
Yards / play3.46.1
EPA / play−0.25+0.13
Success rate40%43%
Explosive plays29
Havoc rate7%19%
3rd down3–145–9
Pts / opportunity0.333.88
Turnovers10
Time of possession28:5031:10
Postgame WE7%94%