

BALLBall State
141-5 · 0-2 MACFINAL


NUNorthwestern
454-1 · 1-1 Big TenBALL +34.5 COVEROVER 53.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP NU 88%→POSTGAME WE NU 99%
Ryan Field · 25,629- Postgame WE
- 99%NU · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.51BALL −0.09
- Success rate
- 54%BALL 40%
- Turnovers
- 0–1≈ 5.6 pts swing
- vs model
- +31proj NU by 19.2
- Plays · pace
- 132proj 119 · 27.3s
Win probability · full game
NU LOW 99% · Q1 9:42 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 2.9Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1

Chiles 1-yd TD run(11:43) #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:42 #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)Q1 11:43 · 4th & Goal · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.3 EPAQ1 11:43 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.3 EPA+.01 - 2

Stumbaugh 40-yd punt(07:53) #32 C.Stumbaugh punt 40 yards to the NU08 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NU08Q1 7:53 · 4th & 8 NU 48 · +0.6 BALL EPAQ1 7:53 · 4th & 8 NU 48 · +0.6 BALL EPA+.00 - 3

Sawchuk 5-yd run(05:29) No Huddle #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU25 (#2 Q.Scandrett; #28 S.Perkins)Q1 5:29 · 1st & 10 BALL 30 · +0.4 NU EPAQ1 5:29 · 1st & 10 BALL 30 · +0.4 NU EPA−.00 - 4

Sawchuk 1-yd run(13:28) #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU01 (#7 B.Marsh; #6 C.Lewis)Q1 13:28 · 1st & Goal BALL 2 · −0.5 NU EPAQ1 13:28 · 1st & Goal BALL 2 · −0.5 NU EPA−.00 - 5

Chiles 19-yd TD to WildeGriffin Wilde 19 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Jackson Kleather Kick)Q1 3:07 · 1st & 10 · 7–0 → 14–0 · +2.3 EPAQ1 3:07 · 7–0 → 14–0 · +2.3 EPA+.00
Player EPA
Total · game

Aidan Chiles · QB17/23 · 272 YDS · 3 TD · 32 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD+27.6
Griffin Wilde · WR8 REC · 144 YDS · 1 TD+12.8
Drew Wagner · WR4 REC · 61 YDS · 1 TD+5.6
Robert Fitzgerald · DBINT · 3 TKL+5.6
Johnny Thompson Jr. · RB7 CAR · 15 YDS · 4 REC · 20 REC YDS−7.9
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 360 | 436 |
| Plays | 78 | 55 |
| Yards / play | 4.6 | 7.9 |
| EPA / play | −0.09 | +0.51 |
| Success rate | 40% | 54% |
| Explosive plays | 4 | 13 |
| Havoc rate | 19% | 13% |
| 3rd down | 5–17 | 4–9 |
| Pts / opportunity | 1.56 | 4.75 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Time of possession | 33:59 | 26:01 |
| Postgame WE | 1% | 99% |

