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FINAL · ESPN+ · KIDD BREWER STADIUM
ODUOld Dominion
102-4 · 1-2 Sun Belt
10
FINAL
APPApp State
33-2 · 0-1 Sun Belt
3
ODU +8.5 COVERUNDER 45.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP ODU 31%→POSTGAME WE ODU 65%
Kidd Brewer Stadium · 27,011
Postgame WE
65%ODU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.22APP −0.52
Success rate
34%APP 26%
Turnovers
2–2≈ 1.4 pts swing
vs model
−7proj APP by 8.0
Plays · pace
133proj 128 · 27.1s

Win probability · full game

ODU LOW 20% · Q3 10:24 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.7

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Old Dominion
    Roche 32-yd run
    (11:35) Shotgun #3 D.Roche rush middle for 32 yards gain to the APP05 (#1 J.McBurrows), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q4 11:35 · 3rd & 3 APP 37 · +2.9 EPA
    Q4 11:35 · 3rd & 3 APP 37 · +2.9 EPA
    +.19
  2. 2Old Dominion
    Safety for Old Dominion
    (07:18) Shotgun App State rush middle for 6 yards loss to the APP00 fumbled by App State at APP00 recovered by APP #8 H.Hasselbeck at APP00. Old Dominion SAFETY, clock 07:18
    Q3 7:18 · 1st & 10 · 0–3 → 2–3 · −2.2 APP EPA
    Q3 7:18 · 0–3 → 2–3 · −2.2 APP EPA
    +.13
  3. 3Old Dominion
    James 2-yd TD run
    (09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.James rush middle for 2 yards gain to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:30 #8 J.Rodriguez pass attempt Successful
    Q4 9:33 · 3rd & Goal · 2–3 → 10–3 · +1.6 EPA
    Q4 9:33 · 2–3 → 10–3 · +1.6 EPA
    +.11
  4. 4Old Dominion
    Roughing The Kicker on APP
    (09:51) #96 I.Brandt punt 52 yards to the APP15, out of bounds at APP15 PENALTY APP Roughing The Kicker (#4 J.Gude) 15 yards from ODU33 to ODU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
    Q3 9:51 · 4th & 2 ODU 33 · +4.1 EPA
    Q3 9:51 · 4th & 2 ODU 33 · +4.1 EPA
    +.10
  5. 5App State
    Henderson intercepts Henicle
    (00:03) Shotgun #10 Q.Henicle pass intercepted by #7 D.Henderson at APP08 #7 D.Henderson return 1 yard to the APP09 (#8 J.Rodriguez)
    Q2 0:03 · 2nd & 10 APP 42 · −0.9 ODU EPA
    Q2 0:03 · 2nd & 10 APP 42 · −0.9 ODU EPA
    −.10

Player EPA

Total · game