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FINAL · ESPN+ · WARREN MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUM
M-OHMiami (OH)
203-3 · 1-1 MAC
20
FINAL
MASSMassachusetts
194-2 · 1-2 MAC
19
MASS +6 COVERUNDER 44.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP M-OH 48%→POSTGAME WE M-OH 50%
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 13,887
Postgame WE
50%M-OH · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.12MASS −0.11
Success rate
34%MASS 37%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 6.2 pts swing
vs model
−1proj MASS by 0.9
Plays · pace
121proj 111 · 29.8s

Win probability · full game

M-OH LOW 54% · Q1 6:36 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.0

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Miami (OH)
    Faulkner fumble, MIA recovers
    (03:42) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 0 yards to the UMass21 fumbled by #23 E.Faulkner at UMass19 recovered by MIA #43 G.Lyons at UMass21, End Of Play
    Q3 3:42 · 2nd & 1 MASS 21 · −6.2 MASS EPA
    Q3 3:42 · 2nd & 1 MASS 21 · −6.2 MASS EPA
    +.18
  2. 2Massachusetts
    Amobi sacks Heavner, −9
    (03:08) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UMass37 (#26 C.Amobi)
    Q2 3:08 · 3rd & 10 MASS 28 · −2.5 M-OH EPA
    Q2 3:08 · 3rd & 10 MASS 28 · −2.5 M-OH EPA
    −.11
  3. 3Massachusetts
    Inagawa 30-yd pass to Harding
    (01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete deep left to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass30, for 30 yards to the UMass33 (#24 M.Yharbrough), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q4 1:56 · 2nd & 16 MASS 3 · +1.6 EPA
    Q4 1:56 · 2nd & 16 MASS 3 · +1.6 EPA
    −.11
  4. 4Miami (OH)
    Scott R.Andrews sacks McCarthy, −9
    (07:34) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UMass06 (#20 Z.Scott, #92 R.Andrews)
    Q3 7:34 · 3rd & 3 MASS 15 · −2.9 MASS EPA
    Q3 7:34 · 3rd & 3 MASS 15 · −2.9 MASS EPA
    +.09
  5. 5Massachusetts
    McCarthy 34-yd pass to Lewis
    (01:09) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete deep left to #19 J.Lewis caught at MIA41, for 34 yards to the MIA41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 1:09 · 1st & 10 MASS 25 · +3.0 EPA
    Q1 1:09 · 1st & 10 MASS 25 · +3.0 EPA
    −.09

Player EPA

Total · game