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FINAL · FS1 · SPARTAN STADIUM
ILLIllinois
383-3 · 1-2 Big Ten
38
FINAL/OT
MSUMichigan State
372-4 · 0-3 Big Ten
37
MSU +2.5 COVEROVER 48.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP ILL 48%→POSTGAME WE ILL 37%
Spartan Stadium · 65,837
Postgame WE
37%ILL · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.21MSU +0.38
Success rate
51%MSU 50%
Turnovers
1–1≈ 0.3 pts swing
vs model
−1proj MSU by 1.0
Plays · pace
124proj 127 · 29.0s

Win probability · full game

ILL LOW 42% · Q4 1:17 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.8

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Illinois
    Clayton 25-yd TD to Clement
    Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at MSU13, for 25 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)
    OT 0:00 · 1st & 10 · 31–31 → 38–31 · +3.0 EPA
    OT 0:00 · 31–31 → 38–31 · +3.0 EPA
    +.33
  2. 2Illinois
    Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN clock 00:00 A.Milivojevic 2-pt pass fails
    Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00 #11 A.Milivojevic pass attempt failed
    OT 0:00 · 1st & Goal · 38–31 → 38–37 · +0.7 MSU EPA
    OT 0:00 · 38–31 → 38–37 · +0.7 MSU EPA
    +.25
  3. 3Michigan State
    Milivojevic 10-yd pass to McCray
    Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at ILL08, for 10 yards to the ILL01 (#0 M.Resetich; #1 X.Scott), 1ST DOWN
    OT 0:00 · 3rd & 6 ILL 11 · +2.8 EPA
    OT 0:00 · 3rd & 6 ILL 11 · +2.8 EPA
    −.20
  4. 4Michigan State
    Clayton run, no gain
    #7 M.Clayton II rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL33 (#10 D.Malone; #55 B.Roberts), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
    Q4 3:27 · 4th & 1 ILL 33 · turnover on downs · −2.8 ILL EPA
    Q4 3:27 · 4th & 1 ILL 33 · −2.8 ILL EPA
    −.17
  5. 5Illinois
    Brown sacks Milivojevic, −1
    Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MSU33 (#4 D.Brown)
    Q4 0:20 · 1st & 10 MSU 34 · −0.4 MSU EPA
    Q4 0:20 · 1st & 10 MSU 34 · −0.4 MSU EPA
    +.11

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 124 plays