ILLIllinois
383-3 · 1-2 Big TenFINAL/OT
MSUMichigan State
372-4 · 0-3 Big TenMSU +2.5 COVEROVER 48.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP ILL 48%→POSTGAME WE ILL 37%
Spartan Stadium · 65,837- Postgame WE
- 37%ILL · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.21MSU +0.38
- Success rate
- 51%MSU 50%
- Turnovers
- 1–1≈ 0.3 pts swing
- vs model
- −1proj MSU by 1.0
- Plays · pace
- 124proj 127 · 29.0s
Win probability · full game
ILL LOW 42% · Q4 1:17 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.8Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Clayton 25-yd TD to ClementShotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at MSU13, for 25 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)OT 0:00 · 1st & 10 · 31–31 → 38–31 · +3.0 EPAOT 0:00 · 31–31 → 38–31 · +3.0 EPA+.33 - 2Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN clock 00:00 A.Milivojevic 2-pt pass failsShotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00 #11 A.Milivojevic pass attempt failedOT 0:00 · 1st & Goal · 38–31 → 38–37 · +0.7 MSU EPAOT 0:00 · 38–31 → 38–37 · +0.7 MSU EPA+.25
- 3
Milivojevic 10-yd pass to McCrayShotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at ILL08, for 10 yards to the ILL01 (#0 M.Resetich; #1 X.Scott), 1ST DOWNOT 0:00 · 3rd & 6 ILL 11 · +2.8 EPAOT 0:00 · 3rd & 6 ILL 11 · +2.8 EPA−.20 - 4Clayton run, no gain#7 M.Clayton II rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL33 (#10 D.Malone; #55 B.Roberts), TURNOVER ON DOWNSQ4 3:27 · 4th & 1 ILL 33 · turnover on downs · −2.8 ILL EPAQ4 3:27 · 4th & 1 ILL 33 · −2.8 ILL EPA−.17
- 5Brown sacks Milivojevic, −1Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MSU33 (#4 D.Brown)Q4 0:20 · 1st & 10 MSU 34 · −0.4 MSU EPAQ4 0:20 · 1st & 10 MSU 34 · −0.4 MSU EPA+.11
Player EPA
Total · game
- Alessio Milivojevic · QB22/26 · 196 YDS · 2 TD · 0 INT · 2 SACKS+10.6
- Hudson Clement · WR6 REC · 105 YDS · 1 TD+8.7
- Katin Houser · QB20/29 · 194 YDS · 1 TD · 1 INT · 14 RUSH YDS+8.0
- Jaziun Patterson · RB17 CAR · 93 YDS · 3 TD · 3 REC · 26 REC YDS+7.5
- Fredrick Moore · WR2 REC · 42 YDS · 1 TD+7.2
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | ILL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 409 | 342 |
| Plays | 70 | 54 |
| Yards / play | 5.8 | 6.3 |
| EPA / play | +0.21 | +0.38 |
| Success rate | 51% | 50% |
| Explosive plays | 6 | 5 |
| Havoc rate | 9% | 7% |
| 3rd down | 5–12 | 6–10 |
| Pts / opportunity | 4.22 | 4.11 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Time of possession | 33:52 | 26:08 |
| Postgame WE | 37% | 63% |