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FINAL · FOX · BILL SNYDER FAMILY STADIUM
HOUHouston
355-1 · 2-1 Big 12
35
FINAL
KSUKansas State
163-2 · 0-2 Big 12
16
HOU +2.5 COVERUNDER 55.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP HOU 55%→POSTGAME WE HOU 87%
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 51,569
Postgame WE
87%HOU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.36KSU +0.02
Success rate
47%KSU 48%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 3.8 pts swing
vs model
+19proj HOU by 2.2
Plays · pace
133proj 141 · 27.1s

Win probability · full game

HOU LOW 51% · Q1 11:31 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 3.6

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Kansas State
    Dimas 34-yd FG no good
    (03:56) #49 J.Dimas field goal attempt from 34 yards NO GOOD (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards), clock 03:53
    Q1 3:56 · 4th & 6 KSU 16 · −3.0 HOU EPA
    Q1 3:56 · 4th & 6 KSU 16 · −3.0 HOU EPA
    −.08
  2. 2Houston
    Young 40-yd run
    (06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Young rush right for 40 yards gain to the KSTATE20 (#0 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 6:03 · 1st & 10 HOU 40 · +2.8 EPA
    Q1 6:03 · 1st & 10 HOU 40 · +2.8 EPA
    +.08
  3. 3Houston
    Johnson incomplete to Tibbs, broken up by Mayo
    (00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #12 J.Tibbs thrown to HOU03 broken up by #2 J.Mayo
    Q1 0:08 · 3rd & 6 HOU 11 · −2.1 KSU EPA
    Q1 0:08 · 3rd & 6 HOU 11 · −2.1 KSU EPA
    +.08
  4. 4Houston
    Weigman 36-yd pass to Young
    (11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep right to #2 K.Young caught at KSTATE01, for 36 yards to the KSTATE01 (#25 Z.Rich), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 11:30 · 3rd & 9 KSU 37 · +5.0 EPA
    Q1 11:30 · 3rd & 9 KSU 37 · +5.0 EPA
    +.07
  5. 5Houston
    Weigman 12-yd pass to Overmyer
    (14:59) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 P.Overmyer caught at HOU29, for 12 yards to the HOU37 (#0 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 14:59 · 1st & 10 HOU 25 · +1.2 EPA
    Q1 14:59 · 1st & 10 HOU 25 · +1.2 EPA
    +.06

Player EPA

Total · game