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FINAL · CBS · AUTZEN STADIUM
UCLAUCLA
175-0 · 3-0 Big Ten
17
FINAL
OREOregon
153-2 · 1-1 Big Ten
15
UCLA +10 COVERUNDER 57.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP UCLA 40%→POSTGAME WE UCLA 48%
Autzen Stadium · 59,262
Postgame WE
48%UCLA · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.30ORE −0.50
Success rate
34%ORE 28%
Turnovers
2–5≈ 5.6 pts swing
vs model
−2proj ORE by 4.0
Plays · pace
131proj 135 · 27.5s

Win probability · full game

UCLA LOW 13% · Q2 13:28 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.1

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1UCLA
    Raiola 7-yd pass to Stewart, fumble lost
    (06:40) #8 D.Raiola pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at ORE23, for 7 yards to the ORE33 fumbled by #7 E.Stewart at ORE31 forced by #1 S.Jackson recovered by UCL #9 J.Woods at ORE33, End Of Play
    Q3 6:40 · 2nd & 6 ORE 26 · −4.1 ORE EPA
    Q3 6:40 · 2nd & 6 ORE 26 · −4.1 ORE EPA
    +.22
  2. 2Oregon
    Thomas pass complete short middle to E.Stewart caught at UCL42 for 44 yards to the UCL00 TOUCHDOWN clock 02:16 1ST DOWN B.Thomas 2-pt run fails
    (02:26) Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short middle to #7 E.Stewart caught at UCL42, for 44 yards to the UCL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #12 B.Thomas rush attempt failed #12 B.Thomas rush attempt failed PENALTY UCL Face Mask #12 B.Thomas rush attempt failed PENALTY UCL Face Mask (#10 S.Omosigho) #12 B.Thomas rush attempt failed PENALTY UCL Face Mask (#10 S.Omosigho) 2 yards from UCL03 to UCL01. NO PLAY
    Q4 2:26 · 2nd & 10 · 17–9 → 17–15 · +5.2 EPA
    Q4 2:26 · 17–9 → 17–15 · +5.2 EPA
    −.18
  3. 3UCLA
    Johnson intercepts Raiola
    (01:31) #8 D.Raiola pass intercepted by #6 T.Johnson at ORE33, End Of Play
    Q3 1:31 · 2nd & 3 ORE 10 · −4.5 ORE EPA
    Q3 1:31 · 2nd & 3 ORE 10 · −4.5 ORE EPA
    +.16
  4. 4UCLA
    Thomas 30-yd pass to Stewart, fumble lost
    (00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at ORE40, for 30 yards to the UCL33 lateral to #9 J.Johnson for 7 yards gain to the UCL33 fumbled by #9 J.Johnson at UCL33 recovered by UCL #21 D.Lovett at UCL33, End Of Play
    Q4 0:04 · 4th & 10 ORE 37 · +0.1 ORE EPA
    Q4 0:04 · 4th & 10 ORE 37 · +0.1 ORE EPA
    +.14
  5. 5Oregon
    Mixon intercepts Iamaleava
    (01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass intercepted by #6 J.Mixon at ORE38 #6 J.Mixon return 2 yards to the ORE40, End Of Play
    Q2 1:17 · 1st & 10 50 · −3.3 UCLA EPA
    Q2 1:17 · 1st & 10 50 · −3.3 UCLA EPA
    −.13

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 131 plays