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FINAL · USA NETWORK · RESER STADIUM
SDSUSan Diego State
142-4 · 1-1 Pac-12
14
FINAL
ORSTOregon State
664-2 · 2-0 Pac-12
66
ORST −14.5 COVEROVER 52.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP ORST 79%→POSTGAME WE ORST 100%
Reser Stadium · 37,361
Postgame WE
100%ORST · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.47SDSU −0.45
Success rate
63%SDSU 21%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 3.4 pts swing
vs model
+52proj ORST by 13.1
Plays · pace
138proj 131 · 26.1s

Win probability · full game

ORST LOW 84% · Q1 14:30 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 1.8

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Oregon State
    Atkinson 2-yd TD to Murphy
    (09:42) #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #6 M.Murphy caught at SDS00, for 2 yards to the SDS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:39 #28 C.Ojeda kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Winsor, LS: #47 T.Sanford)
    Q1 9:42 · 4th & Goal · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.2 EPA
    Q1 9:42 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.2 EPA
    +.05
  2. 2Oregon State
    Atkinson 24-yd pass to Thomas
    (14:30) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete deep left to #16 C.Thomas caught at OSU48, for 24 yards to the SDS48 (#24 J.Cox), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 14:30 · 3rd & 7 ORST 28 · +3.8 EPA
    Q1 14:30 · 3rd & 7 ORST 28 · +3.8 EPA
    +.04
  3. 3Oregon State
    Atkinson 11-yd TD to Legree
    (14:59) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #12 J.Legree caught at SDS06, for 11 yards to the SDS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:55, 1ST DOWN #28 C.Ojeda kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Winsor, LS: #47 T.Sanford)
    Q2 14:59 · 3rd & 6 · 14–0 → 21–0 · +3.2 EPA
    Q2 14:59 · 14–0 → 21–0 · +3.2 EPA
    +.03
  4. 4San Diego State
    Denegal 11-yd pass to Napier
    (08:43) Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #24 J.Napier caught at SDS42, for 11 yards to the SDS42, out of bounds at SDS42, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 8:43 · 3rd & 4 SDSU 31 · +2.1 EPA
    Q1 8:43 · 3rd & 4 SDSU 31 · +2.1 EPA
    −.02
  5. 5Oregon State
    Atkinson 28-yd pass to Hampton
    (13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #7 B.Hampton caught at SDS45, for 28 yards to the SDS15 (#27 M.Lindsay), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 13:29 · 2nd & 5 SDSU 43 · +2.0 EPA
    Q1 13:29 · 2nd & 5 SDSU 43 · +2.0 EPA
    +.02

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 138 plays