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FINAL · NBC · BEAVER STADIUM
USCUSC
316-1 · 3-1 Big Ten
31
FINAL
PSUPenn State
233-3 · 0-3 Big Ten
23
USC −1.5 COVERUNDER 54.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP USC 40%→POSTGAME WE USC 71%
Beaver Stadium · 114,419
Postgame WE
71%USC · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.36PSU +0.05
Success rate
51%PSU 38%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 3.4 pts swing
vs model
−8proj PSU by 4.1
Plays · pace
124proj 136 · 29.0s

Win probability · full game

USC LOW 35% · Q3 15:00 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.2

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1USC
    Wafle sacks Becht, −9
    No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 9 yards to the USC48 (#94 L.Wafle) PENALTY PSU Holding declined
    Q4 9:44 · 3rd & 10 USC 39 · −2.3 PSU EPA
    Q4 9:44 · 3rd & 10 USC 39 · −2.3 PSU EPA
    +.15
  2. 2Penn State
    Becht 13-yd TD to Rappleyea
    No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at USC05, for 13 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)
    Q1 7:26 · 4th & 2 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.4 EPA
    Q1 7:26 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.4 EPA
    −.13
  3. 3USC
    Maiava 10-yd TD to Dixon-Wyatt
    No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU00, for 10 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:11, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)
    Q4 11:11 · 3rd & Goal · 24–23 → 31–23 · +3.6 EPA
    Q4 11:11 · 24–23 → 31–23 · +3.6 EPA
    +.12
  4. 4Penn State
    Barker 48-yd FG good
    Ryan Barker 48 Yd Field Goal
    Q2 0:00 · 1st & 10 · 17–14 → 17–17 · +1.8 EPA
    Q2 0:00 · 17–14 → 17–17 · +1.8 EPA
    −.12
  5. 5USC
    Maiava 11-yd TD to Hines
    J. Maiava pass to T. Hines for 11 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)
    Q2 13:36 · 2nd & Goal · 7–7 → 14–7 · +2.7 EPA
    Q2 13:36 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +2.7 EPA
    +.11

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 124 plays