USC vs Penn State · havoc

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FINAL · NBC · BEAVER STADIUM

USCUSC

316-1 · 3-1 Big Ten

31

FINAL

PSUPenn State

233-3 · 0-3 Big Ten

23

USC −1.5 COVERUNDER 54.5MODEL EDGE MISS

PREGAME WP USC 40%→POSTGAME WE USC 71%

Beaver Stadium · 114,419

Postgame WE: 71%USC · 10k sims; How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play: +0.36PSU +0.05
Success rate: 51%PSU 38%
Turnovers: 0–1≈ 3.4 pts swing
vs model: −8proj PSU by 4.1
Plays · pace: 124proj 136 · 29.0s

Win probability · full game

USC LOW 35% · Q3 15:00 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.2

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|

1
Wafle sacks Becht, −9
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 9 yards to the USC48 (#94 L.Wafle) PENALTY PSU Holding declined
Q4 9:44 · 3rd & 10 USC 39 · −2.3 PSU EPA
Q4 9:44 · 3rd & 10 USC 39 · −2.3 PSU EPA
+.15
2
Becht 13-yd TD to Rappleyea
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at USC05, for 13 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)
Q1 7:26 · 4th & 2 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.4 EPA
Q1 7:26 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.4 EPA
−.13
3
Maiava 10-yd TD to Dixon-Wyatt
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU00, for 10 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:11, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)
Q4 11:11 · 3rd & Goal · 24–23 → 31–23 · +3.6 EPA
Q4 11:11 · 24–23 → 31–23 · +3.6 EPA
+.12
4
Barker 48-yd FG good
Ryan Barker 48 Yd Field Goal
Q2 0:00 · 1st & 10 · 17–14 → 17–17 · +1.8 EPA
Q2 0:00 · 17–14 → 17–17 · +1.8 EPA
−.12
5
Maiava 11-yd TD to Hines
J. Maiava pass to T. Hines for 11 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)
Q2 13:36 · 2nd & Goal · 7–7 → 14–7 · +2.7 EPA
Q2 13:36 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +2.7 EPA
+.11

Player EPA

Total · game

Jayden Maiava · QB21/33 · 301 YDS · 3 TD · 0 INT · 1 SACK
+20.2
Rocco Becht · QB21/32 · 289 YDS · 1 TD · 20 RUSH YDS · 1 SACK
+7.4
Trent Mosley · WR9 REC · 111 YDS · 1 TD
+7.2
Kayden Dixon-Wyatt · WR2 REC · 28 YDS · 1 TD
+7.2
Tanook Hines · WR4 REC · 82 YDS · 1 TD
+6.6

Full box score All 124 plays

Play-by-play

Box score

Team box score, USC at Penn State
Stat	USC	PSU
Total yards	430	357
Plays	63	63
Yards / play	6.8	5.7
EPA / play	+0.36	+0.05
Success rate	51%	38%
Explosive plays	12	5
Havoc rate	14%	12%
3rd down	5–11	2–12
Pts / opportunity	3.44	3.83
Turnovers	0	1
Time of possession	30:08	29:52
Postgame WE	71%	29%