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FINAL · CBSSN · HUSKIE STADIUM
AFAAir Force
284-1 · 2-1 Mountain West
28
FINAL
NIUNorthern Illinois
70-5 · 0-1 Mountain West
7
AFA −7 COVERUNDER 48.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP AFA 70%→POSTGAME WE AFA 97%
Huskie Stadium · 15,292
Postgame WE
97%AFA · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.50NIU −0.01
Success rate
66%NIU 47%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 3.8 pts swing
vs model
+21proj AFA by 8.7
Plays · pace
110proj 139 · 32.7s

Win probability · full game

AFA LOW 66% · Q2 6:10 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 3.0

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Air Force
    Fletcher intercepts Dickens
    (14:59) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass intercepted by #6 B.Fletcher at AF05 #6 B.Fletcher return 5 yards to the AF10 (#70 C.Trask)
    Q2 14:59 · 3rd & 5 AFA 6 · −3.9 NIU EPA
    Q2 14:59 · 3rd & 5 AFA 6 · −3.9 NIU EPA
    +.10
  2. 2Air Force
    Medders 4-yd run
    (05:40) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU42 (#44 J.Murray; #55 J.Bellamy), 1ST DOWN
    Q2 5:40 · 4th & 2 NIU 46 · +2.8 EPA
    Q2 5:40 · 4th & 2 NIU 46 · +2.8 EPA
    +.07
  3. 3Air Force
    Long 13-yd run
    (02:29) #3 M.Long rush left for 13 yards gain to the NIU14 (#11 A.Washington), 1ST DOWN
    Q2 2:29 · 2nd & 6 NIU 27 · +1.2 EPA
    Q2 2:29 · 2nd & 6 NIU 27 · +1.2 EPA
    +.07
  4. 4Air Force
    LaDue 6-yd run
    (07:58) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF31 (#16 K.Conyers; #6 J.Nelson) PENALTY NIU Personal Foul 15 yards from AF31 to AF46, 1ST DOWN
    Q2 7:58 · 1st & 10 AFA 25 · +1.7 EPA
    Q2 7:58 · 1st & 10 AFA 25 · +1.7 EPA
    +.07
  5. 5Air Force
    Allen 20-yd run
    (05:30) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 20 yards gain to the NIU03 (#16 K.Conyers), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 5:30 · 1st & 10 NIU 23 · +1.7 EPA
    Q1 5:30 · 1st & 10 NIU 23 · +1.7 EPA
    +.06

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 110 plays