Air Force vs Northern Illinois

AFAAir Force

284-1 · 2-1 Mountain West

FINAL

NIUNorthern Illinois

70-5 · 0-1 Mountain West

AFA −7 COVERUNDER 48.5MODEL EDGE HIT

PREGAME WP AFA 70%→POSTGAME WE AFA 97%

Huskie Stadium · 15,292

Win probability · full game

AFA LOW 66% · Q2 6:10 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 3.0

Ranked by |win probability added|

1
Fletcher intercepts Dickens
(14:59) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass intercepted by #6 B.Fletcher at AF05 #6 B.Fletcher return 5 yards to the AF10 (#70 C.Trask)
Q2 14:59 · 3rd & 5 AFA 6 · −3.9 NIU EPA
Q2 14:59 · 3rd & 5 AFA 6 · −3.9 NIU EPA
+.10
2
Medders 4-yd run
(05:40) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU42 (#44 J.Murray; #55 J.Bellamy), 1ST DOWN
Q2 5:40 · 4th & 2 NIU 46 · +2.8 EPA
Q2 5:40 · 4th & 2 NIU 46 · +2.8 EPA
+.07
3
Long 13-yd run
(02:29) #3 M.Long rush left for 13 yards gain to the NIU14 (#11 A.Washington), 1ST DOWN
Q2 2:29 · 2nd & 6 NIU 27 · +1.2 EPA
Q2 2:29 · 2nd & 6 NIU 27 · +1.2 EPA
+.07
4
LaDue 6-yd run
(07:58) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF31 (#16 K.Conyers; #6 J.Nelson) PENALTY NIU Personal Foul 15 yards from AF31 to AF46, 1ST DOWN
Q2 7:58 · 1st & 10 AFA 25 · +1.7 EPA
Q2 7:58 · 1st & 10 AFA 25 · +1.7 EPA
+.07
5
Allen 20-yd run
(05:30) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 20 yards gain to the NIU03 (#16 K.Conyers), 1ST DOWN
Q1 5:30 · 1st & 10 NIU 23 · +1.7 EPA
Q1 5:30 · 1st & 10 NIU 23 · +1.7 EPA
+.06

Total · game