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FINAL · ESPN+ · JOE AILLET STADIUM
ULLouisiana
314-2 · 1-1 Sun Belt
31
FINAL
LTLouisiana Tech
323-2 · 1-0 Sun Belt
32
UL +3 COVEROVER 48.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP LT 58%→POSTGAME WE LT 58%
Joe Aillet Stadium · 20,035
Postgame WE
58%LT · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.25UL +0.14
Success rate
53%UL 35%
Turnovers
1–3≈ 4.2 pts swing
vs model
+1proj LT by 3.4
Plays · pace
133proj 129 · 27.1s

Win probability · full game

LT LOW 3% · Q4 8:21 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.9

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Louisiana Tech
    Baker pass complete short middle to E.Finley caught at ULL00 for 7 yards to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN clock 00:46 1ST DOWN B.Baker 2-pt run fails
    (00:45) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at ULL00, for 7 yards to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:46, 1ST DOWN #5 B.Baker rush attempt failed
    Q4 0:45 · 3rd & 3 · 26–31 → 32–31 · +2.7 EPA
    Q4 0:45 · 26–31 → 32–31 · +2.7 EPA
    +.29
  2. 2Louisiana
    Snider fumble, ULL recovers
    (05:03) Shotgun #23 S.Snider rush middle for 4 yards loss to the ULL21 fumbled by #23 S.Snider at ULL21 forced by #68 F.West Jr. recovered by ULL #68 F.West Jr. at ULL21, End Of Play
    Q3 5:03 · 1st & 10 UL 17 · −5.7 LT EPA
    Q3 5:03 · 1st & 10 UL 17 · −5.7 LT EPA
    −.18
  3. 3Louisiana
    Garner 20-yd TD run
    (10:04) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 20 yards gain to the TECH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:51, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)
    Q3 10:04 · 2nd & 10 · 13–10 → 13–17 · +3.0 EPA
    Q3 10:04 · 13–10 → 13–17 · +3.0 EPA
    −.17
  4. 4Louisiana Tech
    Latulas 1-yd punt return
    (02:42) #49 M.Golding punt 37 yards to the TECH33 #3 D.Latulas return 1 yard to the TECH34 (#19 L.Green; #26 K.Wilson)
    Q4 2:42 · 4th & 5 UL 30 · −0.5 UL EPA
    Q4 2:42 · 4th & 5 UL 30 · −0.5 UL EPA
    +.14
  5. 5Louisiana
    Winfield 32-yd pass to Chaney
    (03:02) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete deep middle to #4 T.Chaney caught at TECH39, for 32 yards to the TECH36 (#1 S.Fongang; #0 J.Mcrae), 1ST DOWN
    Q3 3:02 · 3rd & 9 UL 32 · +4.3 EPA
    Q3 3:02 · 3rd & 9 UL 32 · +4.3 EPA
    −.14

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 133 plays