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FINAL · CW · VALLEY CHILDREN'S STADIUM
BSUBoise State
385-1 · 2-0 Pac-12
38
FINAL
FRESFresno State
314-2 · 1-1 Pac-12
31
FRES +8.5 COVEROVER 48.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP BSU 56%→POSTGAME WE BSU 74%
Valley Children's Stadium · 43,086
Postgame WE
74%BSU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.42FRES +0.38
Success rate
47%FRES 49%
Turnovers
0–0
vs model
+7proj BSU by 2.6
Plays · pace
129proj 128 · 27.9s

Win probability · full game

BSU LOW 56% · Q1 10:46 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.2

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Boise State
    Riley 72-yd TD run
    (10:17) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 72 yards gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:10, 1ST DOWN #15 Z.Martinez rush attempt Successful
    Q1 10:17 · 2nd & 7 · 0–7 → 8–7 · +6.8 EPA
    Q1 10:17 · 0–7 → 8–7 · +6.8 EPA
    +.19
  2. 2Boise State
    Madsen 22-yd TD to Favors
    (01:17) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #85 T.Favors caught at FRES25, for 22 yards to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:12, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)
    Q1 1:17 · 3rd & 7 · 8–7 → 15–7 · +3.8 EPA
    Q1 1:17 · 8–7 → 15–7 · +3.8 EPA
    +.09
  3. 3Fresno State
    Mandal 25-yd pass to Freeman
    (14:21) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FRES35, for 25 yards to the BOIS47 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 14:21 · 2nd & 7 FRES 28 · +2.8 EPA
    Q1 14:21 · 2nd & 7 FRES 28 · +2.8 EPA
    −.09
  4. 4Fresno State
    Martin pass complete short left to E.Avit caught at FRES45 for 59 yards to the BOIS00 TOUCHDOWN clock 00:45 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD B.Donelson 2-pt pass fails
    (00:51) Shotgun #3 K.Martin pass complete short left to #0 E.Avit caught at FRES45, for 59 yards to the BOIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:45, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD #6 B.Donelson pass attempt failed
    Q1 0:51 · 2nd & 10 · 15–7 → 15–13 · +5.5 EPA
    Q1 0:51 · 15–7 → 15–13 · +5.5 EPA
    −.09
  5. 5Boise State
    Moore 38-yd FG good
    #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 07:08
    Q3 7:08 · 4th & 6 · 25–20 → 28–20 · +1.1 EPA
    Q3 7:08 · 25–20 → 28–20 · +1.1 EPA
    +.08

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 129 plays