

ECUEast Carolina
173-3 · 1-1 AmericanFINAL/OT


UABUAB
304-3 · 2-1 AmericanUAB +5.5 COVERUNDER 49.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP UAB 33%→POSTGAME WE UAB 76%
Protective Stadium · 19,834- Postgame WE
- 76%UAB · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.01ECU −0.23
- Success rate
- 36%ECU 36%
- Turnovers
- 0–2≈ 12.7 pts swing
- vs model
- −13proj ECU by 7.3
- Plays · pace
- 146proj 128 · 24.7s
Win probability · full game
UAB LOW 1% · Q4 2:25 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.0Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1

Burton 6-yd TD to RobinsonRod Robinson II 6 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)OT 0:00 · 3rd & Goal · 15–17 → 24–17 · +3.7 EPAOT 0:00 · 15–17 → 24–17 · +3.7 EPA+.48 - 2

Engleman 8-yd run(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Engleman Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ECU49 (#3 I.Esonwune), 1ST DOWNQ4 0:01 · 2nd & 5 ECU 41 · −0.1 ECU EPAQ4 0:01 · 2nd & 5 ECU 41 · −0.1 ECU EPA+.40 - 3

Burton 18-yd pass to Smith(00:00) Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short middle to #1 C.Smith caught at ECU12, for 18 yards to the ECU07 (#12 M.Pollard; #8 K.McKinley), 1ST DOWNOT 0:00 · 3rd & 10 ECU 25 · +2.7 EPAOT 0:00 · 3rd & 10 ECU 25 · +2.7 EPA+.34 - 4

Robinson run, no gain(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 0 yards to the ECU06 (#99 J.Lampley)OT 0:00 · 2nd & Goal ECU 6 · −1.2 UAB EPAOT 0:00 · 2nd & Goal ECU 6 · −1.2 UAB EPA−.19 - 5

Burton incomplete to Smith, broken up by Ross(00:00) Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass incomplete deep right to #1 C.Smith thrown to ECU01 broken up by #22 A.RossOT 0:00 · 2nd & 10 ECU 25 · −0.9 UAB EPAOT 0:00 · 2nd & 10 ECU 25 · −0.9 UAB EPA−.15
Player EPA
Total · game

Delvon Gulley · CBINT · 2 PBU · 5 TKL+12.5
Ismael Smith Flores · TE2 REC · 22 YDS · FUM+4.1
Roderick Robinson II · RB8 CAR · 33 YDS · 2 REC · 22 REC YDS · 1 REC TD+3.7
Ashton Gray · RB9 CAR · 26 YDS−6.5
Emory Williams · QB18/27 · 126 YDS · 2 TD · 1 INT · 40 RUSH YDS−12.3

