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FINAL · FOX · AUTZEN STADIUM
NEBNebraska
145-2 · 2-2 Big Ten
14
FINAL
OREOregon
174-2 · 2-1 Big Ten
17
NEB +6.5 COVERUNDER 50.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP ORE 55%→POSTGAME WE ORE 56%
Autzen Stadium · 58,391
Postgame WE
56%ORE · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.27NEB −0.29
Success rate
36%NEB 27%
Turnovers
2–0≈ 7.8 pts swing
vs model
+3proj ORE by 2.1
Plays · pace
141proj 141 · 25.5s

Win probability · full game

ORE LOW 18% · Q4 10:48 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 7.4

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Oregon
    Davison 2-yd run
    (00:38) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NEB04 (#1 J.Whittington), 1ST DOWN
    Q4 0:38 · 4th & 1 NEB 6 · +2.5 EPA
    Q4 0:38 · 4th & 1 NEB 6 · +2.5 EPA
    +.39
  2. 2Oregon
    Raiola 4-yd TD to Johnson
    (00:28) Shotgun #8 D.Raiola pass complete short middle to #9 J.Johnson caught at NEB00, for 4 yards to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:28 #83 H.Lewis pass attempt Successful
    Q4 0:28 · 2nd & Goal · 9–14 → 17–14 · +1.8 EPA
    Q4 0:28 · 9–14 → 17–14 · +1.8 EPA
    +.23
  3. 3Nebraska
    Mozee 26-yd run
    (01:46) Shotgun #22 I.Mozee rush middle for 26 yards gain to the ORE09 (#3 K.Perich; #7 I.Obidegwu), 1ST DOWN
    Q3 1:46 · 3rd & 15 ORE 35 · +4.4 EPA
    Q3 1:46 · 3rd & 15 ORE 35 · +4.4 EPA
    −.21
  4. 4Oregon
    Raiola 4-yd pass to Lott
    (01:33) Shotgun #8 D.Raiola pass complete short middle to #10 J.Lott caught at NEB29, for 4 yards to the NEB29 (#26 D.McDougle III), 1ST DOWN
    Q4 1:33 · 4th & 3 NEB 33 · +2.2 EPA
    Q4 1:33 · 4th & 3 NEB 33 · +2.2 EPA
    +.21
  5. 5Oregon
    Colandrea 8-yd pass to Hunter
    (00:04) Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short left to #1 N.Hunter caught at ORE40, for 8 yards to the ORE40, End Of Play
    Q4 0:04 · 2nd & 10 ORE 48 · −0.7 NEB EPA
    Q4 0:04 · 2nd & 10 ORE 48 · −0.7 NEB EPA
    +.15

Player EPA

Total · game