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FINAL · PEACOCK · SPARTAN STADIUM
NUNorthwestern
245-1 · 2-1 Big Ten
24
FINAL
MSUMichigan State
212-5 · 0-4 Big Ten
21
MSU +7.5 COVERUNDER 50.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP NU 69%→POSTGAME WE NU 56%
Spartan Stadium
Postgame WE
56%NU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.05MSU −0.03
Success rate
43%MSU 44%
Turnovers
0–0
vs model
+3proj NU by 8.3
Plays · pace
127proj 124 · 28.3s

Win probability · full game

NU LOW 17% · Q4 3:29 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.5

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Northwestern
    Smith blocks Boyd 33-yd FG
    #37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 33 yards NO GOOD blocked by #32 M.Smith (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 01:00, out of bounds at NU 00
    Q4 1:00 · 4th & 9 NU 15 · −2.8 MSU EPA
    Q4 1:00 · 4th & 9 NU 15 · −2.8 MSU EPA
    +.39
  2. 2Northwestern
    Chiles 1-yd TD run
    Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:24 #86 A.Honig pass attempt Successful
    Q4 7:24 · 1st & Goal · 13–21 → 21–21 · +0.5 EPA
    Q4 7:24 · 13–21 → 21–21 · +0.5 EPA
    +.34
  3. 3Michigan State
    Milivojevic 53-yd TD to McCray
    Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep middle to #13 C.McCray caught at NU 18, for 53 yards to the NU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)
    Q4 11:48 · 2nd & 11 · 13–14 → 13–21 · +5.4 EPA
    Q4 11:48 · 13–14 → 13–21 · +5.4 EPA
    −.26
  4. 4Michigan State
    Roberts sacks Chiles, −7
    Shotgun #0 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NU 19 (#55 B.Roberts) PENALTY NU Holding declined
    Q4 5:54 · 1st & 10 NU 26 · −1.9 NU EPA
    Q4 5:54 · 1st & 10 NU 26 · −1.9 NU EPA
    −.19
  5. 5Northwestern
    Chiles 21-yd pass to Komolafe
    No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NU 25, for 21 yards to the NU 41 (#7 M.Richard; #12 C.Stodghill), 1ST DOWN
    Q4 1:05 · 1st & 10 NU 20 · +0.9 EPA
    Q4 1:05 · 1st & 10 NU 20 · +0.9 EPA
    +.17

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 127 plays