NUNorthwestern
245-1 · 2-1 Big TenFINAL
MSUMichigan State
212-5 · 0-4 Big TenMSU +7.5 COVERUNDER 50.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP NU 69%→POSTGAME WE NU 56%
Spartan Stadium- Postgame WE
- 56%NU · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.05MSU −0.03
- Success rate
- 43%MSU 44%
- Turnovers
- 0–0
- vs model
- +3proj NU by 8.3
- Plays · pace
- 127proj 124 · 28.3s
Win probability · full game
NU LOW 17% · Q4 3:29 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.5Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Smith blocks Boyd 33-yd FG#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 33 yards NO GOOD blocked by #32 M.Smith (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 01:00, out of bounds at NU 00Q4 1:00 · 4th & 9 NU 15 · −2.8 MSU EPAQ4 1:00 · 4th & 9 NU 15 · −2.8 MSU EPA+.39 - 2Chiles 1-yd TD runShotgun #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:24 #86 A.Honig pass attempt SuccessfulQ4 7:24 · 1st & Goal · 13–21 → 21–21 · +0.5 EPAQ4 7:24 · 13–21 → 21–21 · +0.5 EPA+.34
- 3
Milivojevic 53-yd TD to McCrayShotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep middle to #13 C.McCray caught at NU 18, for 53 yards to the NU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)Q4 11:48 · 2nd & 11 · 13–14 → 13–21 · +5.4 EPAQ4 11:48 · 13–14 → 13–21 · +5.4 EPA−.26 - 4Roberts sacks Chiles, −7Shotgun #0 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NU 19 (#55 B.Roberts) PENALTY NU Holding declinedQ4 5:54 · 1st & 10 NU 26 · −1.9 NU EPAQ4 5:54 · 1st & 10 NU 26 · −1.9 NU EPA−.19
- 5Chiles 21-yd pass to KomolafeNo Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NU 25, for 21 yards to the NU 41 (#7 M.Richard; #12 C.Stodghill), 1ST DOWNQ4 1:05 · 1st & 10 NU 20 · +0.9 EPAQ4 1:05 · 1st & 10 NU 20 · +0.9 EPA+.17
Player EPA
Total · game
- Aidan Chiles · QB18/27 · 226 YDS · 25 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD · FUM+9.3
- Fredrick Moore · WR3 REC · 43 YDS+5.2
- Michael Kilbane · DL1 SACK · 1 TFL · FF · 3 TKL+4.7
- Ben Roberts · DL2 SACKS · 3 TFL · 8 TKL+4.2
- Rodney Bullard Jr. · WR2 REC · 11 YDS−6.0
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | NU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 360 | 305 |
| Plays | 71 | 57 |
| Yards / play | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| EPA / play | +0.05 | −0.03 |
| Success rate | 43% | 44% |
| Explosive plays | 12 | 4 |
| Havoc rate | 9% | 20% |
| 3rd down | 7–14 | 3–12 |
| Pts / opportunity | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Time of possession | 34:55 | 25:05 |
| Postgame WE | 56% | 44% |