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FINAL · ESPNU · BRIDGEFORTH STADIUM
GASTGeorgia State
224-2 · 1-1 Sun Belt
22
FINAL
JMUJames Madison
497-0 · 4-0 Sun Belt
49
JMU −7.5 COVEROVER 57.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP JMU 72%→POSTGAME WE JMU 92%
Bridgeforth Stadium · 25,225
Postgame WE
92%JMU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.38GAST −0.10
Success rate
46%GAST 46%
Turnovers
1–2≈ 1.3 pts swing
vs model
+27proj JMU by 9.7
Plays · pace
133proj 136 · 27.1s

Win probability · full game

JMU LOW 66% · Q1 14:52 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 2.8

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1James Madison
    Coleman 9-yd run
    (14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman rush right for 9 yards gain to the JMU39 (#20 C.Owens), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 14:16 · 3rd & 5 JMU 30 · +2.4 EPA
    Q1 14:16 · 3rd & 5 JMU 30 · +2.4 EPA
    +.09
  2. 2Georgia State
    Pettaway 3-yd run
    (12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GSU03 (#15 T.Mittman)
    Q1 12:55 · 1st & Goal GAST 6 · +0.3 JMU EPA
    Q1 12:55 · 1st & Goal GAST 6 · +0.3 JMU EPA
    −.08
  3. 3James Madison
    Coleman 20-yd TD to Scott
    (05:44) Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass complete short middle to #17 M.Scott caught at GSU16, for 20 yards to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel)
    Q1 5:44 · 3rd & 6 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +3.6 EPA
    Q1 5:44 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +3.6 EPA
    +.07
  4. 4James Madison
    Evans 2-yd TD run
    (11:31) Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush left for 2 yards gain to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:28 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel)
    Q1 11:31 · 3rd & Goal · 0–0 → 7–0 · +1.8 EPA
    Q1 11:31 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +1.8 EPA
    +.07
  5. 5Georgia State
    Holding on JMU
    (08:20) Shotgun #8 C.Brown pass complete short right to #10 D.Riles caught at JMU26, for 3 yards to the JMU26 (#14 K.Flowe) PENALTY JMU Holding (#45 L.Johnson) 10 yards from JMU29 to JMU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
    Q1 8:20 · 3rd & 3 JMU 29 · +1.4 EPA
    Q1 8:20 · 3rd & 3 JMU 29 · +1.4 EPA
    −.06

Player EPA

Total · game