FAUFlorida Atlantic
244-2 · 1-1 AmericanFINAL
ARMYArmy
564-2 · 3-1 AmericanARMY −2.5 COVEROVER 55.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP ARMY 57%→POSTGAME WE ARMY 95%
Michie Stadium · 28,537- Postgame WE
- 95%ARMY · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.62FAU +0.25
- Success rate
- 58%FAU 49%
- Turnovers
- 0–1≈ 4.5 pts swing
- vs model
- +32proj ARMY by 3.0
- Plays · pace
- 140proj 139 · 25.7s
Win probability · full game
ARMY LOW 52% · Q1 11:50 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 3.1Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Veltkamp 24-yd TD to Messer(11:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete deep middle to #8 E.Messer caught at Army00, for 24 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:50, 1ST DOWN #41 C.Rogers kick attempt good (H: #91 R.Chandley, LS: #56 B.Thomas)Q1 11:56 · 3rd & 9 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.1 EPAQ1 11:56 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.1 EPA−.17 - 2
Hellums 58-yd TD run(08:51) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 58 yards gain to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:42, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)Q1 8:51 · 3rd & 5 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +6.3 EPAQ1 8:51 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +6.3 EPA+.17 - 3Veltkamp 34-yd TD to Valsin(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete deep middle to #2 K.Valsin caught at Army00, for 34 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:33, 1ST DOWN #41 C.Rogers kick attempt good (H: #91 R.Chandley, LS: #56 B.Thomas)Q1 5:35 · 1st & 10 · 14–7 → 14–14 · +3.3 EPAQ1 5:35 · 14–7 → 14–14 · +3.3 EPA−.09
- 4Hellums 2-yd TD run(01:20) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 2 yards gain to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:18 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)Q2 1:20 · 1st & Goal · 21–14 → 28–14 · +1.2 EPAQ2 1:20 · 21–14 → 28–14 · +1.2 EPA+.08
- 5Howard 30-yd TD run(14:44) Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush right for 30 yards gain to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:38, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)Q1 14:44 · 1st & 10 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +2.7 EPAQ1 14:44 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +2.7 EPA+.07
Player EPA
Total · game
- Cale Hellums · QB1/2 · 2 YDS · 0 INT · 195 RUSH YDS · 5 RUSH TD+27.5
- Caden Veltkamp · QB33/48 · 318 YDS · 3 TD · 1 INT · 2 SACKS+14.9
- Easton Messer · WR14 REC · 102 YDS · 1 TD+12.2
- Jake Rendina · RB7 CAR · 86 YDS · 1 TD+7.0
- Dominique Henry · WR4 REC · 57 YDS · FUM+6.6
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | FAU | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 432 | 481 |
| Plays | 77 | 62 |
| Yards / play | 5.6 | 7.8 |
| EPA / play | +0.25 | +0.62 |
| Success rate | 49% | 58% |
| Explosive plays | 7 | 7 |
| Havoc rate | 3% | 8% |
| 3rd down | 10–14 | 7–12 |
| Pts / opportunity | 2.67 | 6.13 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Time of possession | 27:12 | 32:48 |
| Postgame WE | 5% | 95% |