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FINAL · ESPN+ · DOYT L. PERRY STADIUM
BALLBall State
322-5 · 1-2 MAC
32
FINAL/OT
BGSUBowling Green
312-5 · 2-1 MAC
31
BALL +6 COVEROVER 46.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP BALL 40%→POSTGAME WE BALL 48%
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 19,875
Postgame WE
48%BALL · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.16BGSU +0.11
Success rate
55%BGSU 45%
Turnovers
1–1≈ 3.9 pts swing
vs model
−1proj BGSU by 4.0
Plays · pace
124proj 119 · 29.0s

Win probability · full game

BALL LOW 2% · Q4 0:46 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 8.2

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Ball State
    Horton 1-yd TD run
    (00:00) Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00 #88 A.Scherle pass attempt Successful
    OT 0:00 · 1st & Goal · 24–31 → 32–31 · +0.7 EPA
    OT 0:00 · 24–31 → 32–31 · +0.7 EPA
    +.82
  2. 2Bowling Green
    Banks 35-yd fumble-return TD
    D'kyah Banks 35 Yd Fumble Return (Travis Kenner Kick)
    Q4 1:01 · 1st & 10 · 17–17 → 17–24 · −7.4 BALL EPA
    Q4 1:01 · 17–17 → 17–24 · −7.4 BALL EPA
    −.49
  3. 3Ball State
    Luster 20-yd TD to Hohlt
    Eli Hohlt 20 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)
    Q4 0:00 · 2nd & 10 · 17–24 → 24–24 · +5.4 EPA
    Q4 0:00 · 17–24 → 24–24 · +5.4 EPA
    +.29
  4. 4Bowling Green
    Kastantin 15-yd pass to Kemp
    (04:12) #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #44 L.Kemp caught at BallSt31, for 15 yards to the BallSt18 (#27 G.Forsha), 1ST DOWN
    Q4 4:12 · 4th & 2 BALL 33 · +3.5 EPA
    Q4 4:12 · 4th & 2 BALL 33 · +3.5 EPA
    −.18
  5. 5Bowling Green
    Kastantin 6-yd TD to Jacon-Duffy
    (01:15) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at BallSt00, for 6 yards to the BallSt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:12 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)
    Q4 1:15 · 3rd & Goal · 17–10 → 17–17 · +3.4 EPA
    Q4 1:15 · 17–10 → 17–17 · +3.4 EPA
    −.18

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 124 plays