BALLBall State
322-5 · 1-2 MACFINAL/OT
BGSUBowling Green
312-5 · 2-1 MACBALL +6 COVEROVER 46.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP BALL 40%→POSTGAME WE BALL 48%
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 19,875- Postgame WE
- 48%BALL · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.16BGSU +0.11
- Success rate
- 55%BGSU 45%
- Turnovers
- 1–1≈ 3.9 pts swing
- vs model
- −1proj BGSU by 4.0
- Plays · pace
- 124proj 119 · 29.0s
Win probability · full game
BALL LOW 2% · Q4 0:46 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 8.2Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Horton 1-yd TD run(00:00) Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00 #88 A.Scherle pass attempt SuccessfulOT 0:00 · 1st & Goal · 24–31 → 32–31 · +0.7 EPAOT 0:00 · 24–31 → 32–31 · +0.7 EPA+.82 - 2
Banks 35-yd fumble-return TDD'kyah Banks 35 Yd Fumble Return (Travis Kenner Kick)Q4 1:01 · 1st & 10 · 17–17 → 17–24 · −7.4 BALL EPAQ4 1:01 · 17–17 → 17–24 · −7.4 BALL EPA−.49 - 3Luster 20-yd TD to HohltEli Hohlt 20 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)Q4 0:00 · 2nd & 10 · 17–24 → 24–24 · +5.4 EPAQ4 0:00 · 17–24 → 24–24 · +5.4 EPA+.29
- 4Kastantin 15-yd pass to Kemp(04:12) #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #44 L.Kemp caught at BallSt31, for 15 yards to the BallSt18 (#27 G.Forsha), 1ST DOWNQ4 4:12 · 4th & 2 BALL 33 · +3.5 EPAQ4 4:12 · 4th & 2 BALL 33 · +3.5 EPA−.18
- 5Kastantin 6-yd TD to Jacon-Duffy(01:15) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at BallSt00, for 6 yards to the BallSt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:12 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Q4 1:15 · 3rd & Goal · 17–10 → 17–17 · +3.4 EPAQ4 1:15 · 17–10 → 17–17 · +3.4 EPA−.18
Player EPA
Total · game
- Kal-El Pascal · S0.5 TFL · FF · 6 TKL+7.4
- Brennan Ridley · WR2 REC · 84 YDS · 1 TD+7.2
- TJ Horton · RB16 CAR · 81 YDS · 2 TD · 1 REC · 12 REC YDS+6.8
- Keldric Luster · QB16/24 · 195 YDS · 1 TD · 125 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD+6.6
- Jay Kastantin · QB17/24 · 215 YDS · 2 TD · 1 INT · FUM+6.4
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 435 | 313 |
| Plays | 66 | 59 |
| Yards / play | 6.6 | 5.3 |
| EPA / play | +0.16 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 55% | 45% |
| Explosive plays | 9 | 3 |
| Havoc rate | 19% | 12% |
| 3rd down | 5–12 | 5–12 |
| Pts / opportunity | 3.20 | 8.00 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Time of possession | 30:15 | 29:45 |
| Postgame WE | 48% | 52% |