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FINAL · ESPN+ · UB STADIUM
MASSMassachusetts
184-3 · 1-3 MAC
18
FINAL/OT
BUFFBuffalo
254-3 · 2-1 MAC
25
BUFF −6.5 COVERUNDER 43.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP BUFF 47%→POSTGAME WE BUFF 64%
UB Stadium · 6,037
Postgame WE
64%BUFF · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.09MASS +0.03
Success rate
38%MASS 42%
Turnovers
1–1≈ 0.2 pts swing
vs model
−7proj MASS by 1.2
Plays · pace
150proj 129 · 24.0s

Win probability · full game

BUFF LOW 25% · Q4 0:47 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 8.8

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Buffalo
    Wright 17-yd pass to Andrews
    (00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short left to #2 J.Andrews caught at UMASS24, for 17 yards to the UMASS24, out of bounds at UMASS24, 1ST DOWN
    Q4 0:47 · 3rd & 10 MASS 41 · +1.5 EPA
    Q4 0:47 · 3rd & 10 MASS 41 · +1.5 EPA
    +.30
  2. 2Buffalo
    Hautanen 29-yd FG good
    (00:00) #31 O.Hautanen field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever), clock 00:00
    Q4 0:00 · 4th & 8 · 15–18 → 18–18 · +0.5 EPA
    Q4 0:00 · 15–18 → 18–18 · +0.5 EPA
    +.27
  3. 3Buffalo
    Wright 15-yd TD to Walker
    (00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #41 C.Walker caught at UMASS00, for 15 yards to the UMASS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt failed (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever) PENALTY UMASS Offside (#23 J.Clark) 2 yards from UMASS03 to UMASS01. NO PLAY #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever)
    OT 0:00 · 1st & 10 · 18–18 → 25–18 · +2.2 EPA
    OT 0:00 · 18–18 → 25–18 · +2.2 EPA
    +.25
  4. 4Massachusetts
    Francavilla run, −5
    (07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #74 N.Francavilla rush middle for 5 yards loss to the BUF31 fumbled by #74 N.Francavilla at BUF36 recovered by BUF #0 N.Hill at BUF31, End Of Play
    Q4 7:07 · 3rd & 1 BUFF 36 · −3.3 BUFF EPA
    Q4 7:07 · 3rd & 1 BUFF 36 · −3.3 BUFF EPA
    −.24
  5. 5Buffalo
    Wright 2-yd TD to Walker
    (10:47) No Huddle #7 J.Wright pass complete short left to #41 C.Walker caught at UMASS04, for 2 yards to the UMASS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:47 #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever)
    Q3 10:47 · 4th & Goal · 8–15 → 15–15 · +3.2 EPA
    Q3 10:47 · 8–15 → 15–15 · +3.2 EPA
    +.19

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 150 plays