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FINAL · ESPN+ · KELLY/SHORTS STADIUM
WMUWestern Michigan
215-2 · 3-0 MAC
21
FINAL
CMUCentral Michigan
143-4 · 1-2 MAC
14
CMU +7.5 COVERUNDER 42.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP WMU 61%→POSTGAME WE WMU 68%
Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 25,352
Postgame WE
68%WMU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.17CMU −0.06
Success rate
47%CMU 40%
Turnovers
0–0
vs model
+7proj WMU by 4.7
Plays · pace
126proj 116 · 28.6s

Win probability · full game

WMU LOW 64% · Q1 9:41 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 3.4

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Western Michigan
    Holding on CMU
    (00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete short middle to #17 B.Naves thrown to WMU20 broken up by #17 C.Barber PENALTY CMU Holding (#76 M.Koivisto) 10 yards from WMU36 to WMU46. NO PLAY
    Q4 0:28 · 1st & 10 WMU 36 · −1.1 CMU EPA
    Q4 0:28 · 1st & 10 WMU 36 · −1.1 CMU EPA
    +.07
  2. 2Western Michigan
    Littlejohn run, −2
    (14:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 E.Littlejohn rush right for 2 yards loss to the WMU21 (#14 J.Taylor; #34 D.Esper)
    Q1 14:08 · 2nd & 12 WMU 23 · −1.5 EPA
    Q1 14:08 · 2nd & 12 WMU 23 · −1.5 EPA
    +.07
  3. 3Western Michigan
    Flores 1-yd pass to Townsend
    (09:14) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short right to #2 B.Townsend caught at WMU41, for 1 yard to the WMU38 (#12 D.Moore)
    Q1 9:14 · 3rd & 3 WMU 39 · −1.6 CMU EPA
    Q1 9:14 · 3rd & 3 WMU 39 · −1.6 CMU EPA
    +.05
  4. 4Western Michigan
    Flores 1-yd run
    (08:31) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU37 (#47 D.Moon; #10 J.Betts), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
    Q1 8:31 · 4th & 2 WMU 38 · −2.6 CMU EPA
    Q1 8:31 · 4th & 2 WMU 38 · −2.6 CMU EPA
    +.05
  5. 5Central Michigan
    Lowry 11-yd pass to Chenault
    (13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #2 A.Chenault caught at WMU32, for 11 yards to the WMU32 (#4 J.Jackson)
    Q1 13:24 · 3rd & 14 WMU 21 · +0.1 WMU EPA
    Q1 13:24 · 3rd & 14 WMU 21 · +0.1 WMU EPA
    −.05

Player EPA

Total · game