North Carolina vs Duke

UNCNorth Carolina

244-2 · 2-1 ACC

FINAL

DUKEDuke

204-2 · 1-2 ACC

UNC +3 COVERUNDER 46.5MODEL EDGE MISS

PREGAME WP UNC 41%→POSTGAME WE UNC 59%

Wallace Wade Stadium · 35,018

Win probability · full game

UNC LOW 23% · Q4 3:48 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 7.0

Ranked by |win probability added|

1
McGill 24-yd TD run
(02:00) Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush left for 24 yards gain to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt)
Q4 2:00 · 1st & 10 · 17–20 → 24–20 · +3.6 EPA
Q4 2:00 · 17–20 → 24–20 · +3.6 EPA
+.26
2
Eget incomplete
(00:28) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle thrown to UNC30 QB hurried by #90 X.Lewis and #10 P.Seelmann PENALTY DUKE Intentional Grounding (#2 W.Eget)
Q4 0:28 · 1st & 10 UNC 30 · −1.5 DUKE EPA
Q4 0:28 · 1st & 10 UNC 30 · −1.5 DUKE EPA
+.23
3
Eget 7-yd TD to Sheppard
(04:44) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #20 N.Sheppard caught at UNC09, for 7 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:39 PENALTY UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#91 L.Jackson) 15 yards from UNC00 to UNC03, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #52 J.Fitzgerald)
Q4 4:44 · 2nd & Goal · 17–13 → 17–20 · +2.5 EPA
Q4 4:44 · 17–13 → 17–20 · +2.5 EPA
−.17
4
Sheppard 8-yd run
(00:33) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNC30 (#21 K.Dopson III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Q4 0:33 · 3rd & 1 UNC 38 · +0.7 EPA
Q4 0:33 · 3rd & 1 UNC 38 · +0.7 EPA
−.15
5
Dopson intercepts Eget
(00:19) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass intercepted by #21 K.Dopson III at UNC15 QB hurried by #90 X.Lewis, End Of Play
Q4 0:19 · 3rd & 14 UNC 34 · −1.2 DUKE EPA
Q4 0:19 · 3rd & 14 UNC 34 · −1.2 DUKE EPA
+.15

Total · game