

TOLToledo
345-2 · 2-1 MACFINAL


EMUEastern Michigan
144-4 · 3-1 MACTOL −7.5 COVERUNDER 51.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP TOL 76%→POSTGAME WE TOL 85%
Rynearson Stadium · 10,373- Postgame WE
- 85%TOL · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.16EMU −0.27
- Success rate
- 49%EMU 27%
- Turnovers
- 1–0≈ 6.1 pts swing
- vs model
- +20proj TOL by 11.5
- Plays · pace
- 140proj 133 · 25.7s
Win probability · full game
TOL LOW 64% · Q1 12:24 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 3.8Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1

Richter 28-yd TD to Dabbs(07:52) No Huddle #6 J.Richter pass complete deep left to #3 A.Dabbs caught at EMU00, for 28 yards to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:50, 1ST DOWN #93 R.Griffith kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Ruggles, LS: #59 M.Allen)Q1 7:52 · 2nd & 6 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.1 EPAQ1 7:52 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.1 EPA+.08 - 2

Kim incomplete to Prosper, turnover on downs(10:58) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short right to #3 B.Prosper thrown to TOL28 QB hurried by #52 L.Lambert-Pipkin and #0 A.Zock, TURNOVER ON DOWNSQ1 10:58 · 4th & 4 TOL 35 · −2.6 EMU EPAQ1 10:58 · 4th & 4 TOL 35 · −2.6 EMU EPA+.07 - 3

Kim 5-yd pass to Mack(14:59) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short middle to #5 H.Mack caught at EMU29, for 5 yards to the EMU30 QB hurried by #0 A.Zock (#44 I.Zay)Q1 14:59 · 1st & 10 EMU 25 · +0.3 EPAQ1 14:59 · 1st & 10 EMU 25 · +0.3 EPA−.05 - 4

Griffith 30-yd FG good(06:24) #93 R.Griffith field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Ruggles, LS: #59 M.Allen), clock 06:21Q1 6:24 · 4th & 8 · 7–0 → 10–0 · +0.6 TOL EPAQ1 6:24 · 7–0 → 10–0 · +0.6 TOL EPA−.04 - 5

Kim 15-yd pass to Long(13:12) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short middle to #9 J.Long caught at TOL44, for 15 yards to the TOL41 (#44 I.Zay), 1ST DOWNQ1 13:12 · 3rd & 7 EMU 44 · +2.6 EPAQ1 13:12 · 3rd & 7 EMU 44 · +2.6 EPA−.04
Player EPA
Total · game

John Alan Richter · QB24/30 · 288 YDS · 1 TD · 0 INT · FUM+18.4
Adjatay Dabbs · WR5 REC · 66 YDS · 1 TD+8.1
Joshua Long · TE7 REC · 84 YDS · 1 TD+6.7
Autavius Ison · RB18 CAR · 104 YDS · 1 TD · FUM−9.7
Jace Stuckey · QB2/3 · 10 YDS · 0 INT · 3 SACKS−9.8
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 480 | 276 |
| Plays | 70 | 71 |
| Yards / play | 6.9 | 3.9 |
| EPA / play | +0.16 | −0.27 |
| Success rate | 49% | 27% |
| Explosive plays | 10 | 6 |
| Havoc rate | 21% | 9% |
| 3rd down | 5–13 | 5–15 |
| Pts / opportunity | 3.78 | 1.56 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Time of possession | 33:35 | 26:25 |
| Postgame WE | 85% | 15% |

