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FINAL · ABC · NEYLAND STADIUM
ALAAlabama
105-2 · 3-2 SEC
10
FINAL
TENNTennessee
266-1 · 3-1 SEC
26
TENN +7.5 COVERUNDER 50.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP TENN 30%→POSTGAME WE TENN 86%
Neyland Stadium · 101,915
Postgame WE
86%TENN · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.03ALA −0.28
Success rate
47%ALA 30%
Turnovers
1–1≈ 2.7 pts swing
vs model
−16proj ALA by 8.7
Plays · pace
127proj 132 · 28.3s

Win probability · full game

TENN LOW 28% · Q1 14:29 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.0

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Alabama
    Taylor intercepts MacIntyre
    (10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass intercepted by #13 I.Taylor at TENN28 broken up by #0 Y.Pierre #13 I.Taylor return 14 yards to the TENN14 (#7 D.Brame), out of bounds. #70 D.Sanders Jr. injured on the play
    Q2 10:27 · 1st & 10 TENN 14 · −5.7 TENN EPA
    Q2 10:27 · 1st & 10 TENN 14 · −5.7 TENN EPA
    −.20
  2. 2Alabama
    Asparuhov punt 46 yards to the TENN23 Tennessee 0-yd punt return
    (04:04) #32 A.Asparuhov punt 46 yards to the TENN23 Tennessee return 0 yards to the TENN23 fumbled by Tennessee at TENN23 recovered by BAMA #4 L.Metz at TENN23, End Of Play
    Q2 4:04 · 4th & 4 ALA 31 · +5.3 EPA
    Q2 4:04 · 4th & 4 ALA 31 · +5.3 EPA
    −.11
  3. 3Tennessee
    Hill fumble, TENN recovers
    (01:58) #4 D.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TENN11 fumbled by #4 D.Hill at TENN13 recovered by TENN #10 D.Lane at TENN11, End Of Play
    Q2 1:58 · 4th & 1 TENN 14 · −3.0 ALA EPA
    Q2 1:58 · 4th & 1 TENN 14 · −3.0 ALA EPA
    +.09
  4. 4Tennessee
    Bishop 5-yd TD run
    (05:09) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAMA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:05. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
    Q3 5:09 · 1st & Goal · 12–10 → 19–10 · +1.3 EPA
    Q3 5:09 · 12–10 → 19–10 · +1.3 EPA
    +.08
  5. 5Tennessee
    Brown run, −1
    (04:31) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BAMA24 (#10 D.Lane)
    Q1 4:31 · 1st & 10 ALA 25 · −0.8 ALA EPA
    Q1 4:31 · 1st & 10 ALA 25 · −0.8 ALA EPA
    +.08

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 127 plays