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FINAL · ESPN+ · YAGER STADIUM
AKRAkron
141-6 · 0-3 MAC
14
FINAL
M-OHMiami (OH)
344-3 · 2-1 MAC
34
M-OH −9.5 COVEROVER 47.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP M-OH 78%→POSTGAME WE M-OH 86%
Yager Stadium · 18,515
Postgame WE
86%M-OH · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.11AKR −0.23
Success rate
41%AKR 34%
Turnovers
0–3≈ 15.6 pts swing
vs model
+20proj M-OH by 12.7
Plays · pace
121proj 121 · 29.8s

Win probability · full game

M-OH LOW 52% · Q1 3:52 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.0

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Akron
    Roggow 49-yd pass to Louis
    (08:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short middle to #9 J.Louis III caught at Miami48, for 49 yards to the Miami12 (#1 D.Tatum), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 8:09 · 3rd & 7 AKR 39 · +4.9 EPA
    Q1 8:09 · 3rd & 7 AKR 39 · +4.9 EPA
    −.12
  2. 2Miami (OH)
    Minich intercepts Roggow
    (02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass intercepted by #17 B.Minich at Akron44 QB hurried by #0 A.Knighten #17 B.Minich return 18 yards to the Akron26 (#56 B.Smith)
    Q1 2:40 · 2nd & 6 AKR 29 · −4.8 AKR EPA
    Q1 2:40 · 2nd & 6 AKR 29 · −4.8 AKR EPA
    +.10
  3. 3Miami (OH)
    Smith 69-yd run
    (05:23) Shotgun #24 S.Smith rush left for 69 yards gain to the Akron11 (#29 T.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q2 5:23 · 1st & 10 M-OH 20 · +4.3 EPA
    Q2 5:23 · 1st & 10 M-OH 20 · +4.3 EPA
    +.10
  4. 4Akron
    Roggow 2-yd pass to Gant
    (10:31) Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short right to #1 J.Gant caught at Akron03, for 2 yards to the Akron05 (#1 D.Tatum), out of bounds
    Q1 10:31 · 2nd & 10 AKR 3 · −0.1 EPA
    Q1 10:31 · 2nd & 10 AKR 3 · −0.1 EPA
    −.09
  5. 5Akron
    Roggow 19-yd pass to Alexander
    (10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short middle to #83 E.Alexander caught at Akron37, for 19 yards to the Akron46 (#13 D.Yharbrough; #1 D.Tatum), 1ST DOWN
    Q2 10:50 · 3rd & 3 AKR 27 · +2.4 EPA
    Q2 10:50 · 3rd & 3 AKR 27 · +2.4 EPA
    −.09

Player EPA

Total · game