UNLV vs Air Force

UNLVUNLV

314-3 · 2-1 Mountain West

FINAL

AFAAir Force

415-1 · 3-1 Mountain West

AFA −1.5 COVEROVER 49.5MODEL EDGE MISS

PREGAME WP AFA 49%→POSTGAME WE AFA 75%

Falcon Stadium · 23,636

Win probability · full game

AFA LOW 35% · Q2 2:36 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.2

Ranked by |win probability added|

1
Medders 32-yd TD run
(14:58) #5 E.Medders rush middle for 32 yards gain to the LV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)
Q4 14:58 · 1st & 10 · 20–24 → 27–24 · +3.3 EPA
Q4 14:58 · 20–24 → 27–24 · +3.3 EPA
+.19
2
Conti 6-yd TD run
(07:29) #44 R.Conti rush right for 6 yards gain to the LV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:28 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)
Q3 7:29 · 2nd & Goal · 13–17 → 20–17 · +2.1 EPA
Q3 7:29 · 13–17 → 20–17 · +2.1 EPA
+.19
3
Arnold 60-yd TD to McGee
(14:57) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep left to #6 K.McGee caught at AF13, for 60 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)
Q2 14:57 · 2nd & 8 · 3–0 → 3–7 · +5.7 EPA
Q2 14:57 · 3–0 → 3–7 · +5.7 EPA
−.16
4
Conti run, −1
(08:30) #44 R.Conti rush right for 1 yard loss to the LV45 (#1 M.Bin-Wahad; #23 C.Santee), out of bounds
Q2 8:30 · 2nd & 6 UNLV 44 · −1.3 AFA EPA
Q2 8:30 · 2nd & 6 UNLV 44 · −1.3 AFA EPA
−.15
5
Thomas 3-yd TD run
(02:39) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush left for 3 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:36 #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)
Q2 2:39 · 1st & Goal · 10–7 → 10–14 · +1.1 EPA
Q2 2:39 · 10–7 → 10–14 · +1.1 EPA
−.13

Total · game