

UNLVUNLV
314-3 · 2-1 Mountain WestFINAL


AFAAir Force
415-1 · 3-1 Mountain WestAFA −1.5 COVEROVER 49.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP AFA 49%→POSTGAME WE AFA 75%
Falcon Stadium · 23,636- Postgame WE
- 75%AFA · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.47UNLV +0.25
- Success rate
- 53%UNLV 46%
- Turnovers
- 0–1≈ 3.7 pts swing
- vs model
- −10proj UNLV by 0.6
- Plays · pace
- 129proj 138 · 27.9s
Win probability · full game
AFA LOW 35% · Q2 2:36 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.2Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1

Medders 32-yd TD run(14:58) #5 E.Medders rush middle for 32 yards gain to the LV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Q4 14:58 · 1st & 10 · 20–24 → 27–24 · +3.3 EPAQ4 14:58 · 20–24 → 27–24 · +3.3 EPA+.19 - 2

Conti 6-yd TD run(07:29) #44 R.Conti rush right for 6 yards gain to the LV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:28 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Q3 7:29 · 2nd & Goal · 13–17 → 20–17 · +2.1 EPAQ3 7:29 · 13–17 → 20–17 · +2.1 EPA+.19 - 3

Arnold 60-yd TD to McGee(14:57) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep left to #6 K.McGee caught at AF13, for 60 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)Q2 14:57 · 2nd & 8 · 3–0 → 3–7 · +5.7 EPAQ2 14:57 · 3–0 → 3–7 · +5.7 EPA−.16 - 4

Conti run, −1(08:30) #44 R.Conti rush right for 1 yard loss to the LV45 (#1 M.Bin-Wahad; #23 C.Santee), out of boundsQ2 8:30 · 2nd & 6 UNLV 44 · −1.3 AFA EPAQ2 8:30 · 2nd & 6 UNLV 44 · −1.3 AFA EPA−.15 - 5

Thomas 3-yd TD run(02:39) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush left for 3 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:36 #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)Q2 2:39 · 1st & Goal · 10–7 → 10–14 · +1.1 EPAQ2 2:39 · 10–7 → 10–14 · +1.1 EPA−.13
Player EPA
Total · game

Jackson Arnold · QB21/33 · 246 YDS · 2 TD · 1 INT · 78 RUSH YDS+24.7
Evan Medders · QB2/3 · 18 YDS · 0 INT · 152 RUSH YDS · 3 RUSH TD+11.5
Kayden McGee · WR5 REC · 99 YDS · 2 TD+11.1
Owen Allen · RB19 CAR · 96 YDS · 1 TD+7.9
Rocco Conti · RB12 CAR · 103 YDS · 1 TD+6.7
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 376 | 448 |
| Plays | 65 | 65 |
| Yards / play | 5.8 | 6.9 |
| EPA / play | +0.25 | +0.47 |
| Success rate | 46% | 53% |
| Explosive plays | 5 | 9 |
| Havoc rate | 3% | 17% |
| 3rd down | 9–13 | 4–9 |
| Pts / opportunity | 3.44 | 5.13 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Time of possession | 24:47 | 35:13 |
| Postgame WE | 25% | 75% |

