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FINAL · ESPN+ · M. M. ROBERTS STADIUM
ARSTArkansas State
233-4 · 1-2 Sun Belt
23
FINAL
USMSouthern Miss
131-5 · 0-2 Sun Belt
13
ARST −5.5 COVERUNDER 61.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP ARST 48%→POSTGAME WE ARST 72%
M. M. Roberts Stadium · 22,585
Postgame WE
72%ARST · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.06USM −0.18
Success rate
37%USM 32%
Turnovers
0–0
vs model
−10proj USM by 0.7
Plays · pace
136proj 129 · 26.5s

Win probability · full game

ARST LOW 64% · Q1 13:34 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.3

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Southern Miss
    Lyddy 16-yd pass to Robinson
    Shotgun #18 L.Lyddy pass complete short left to #14 S.Robinson caught at USM28, for 16 yards to the USM41 (#16 J.Drew), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 2:10 · 3rd & 10 USM 25 · +3.4 EPA
    Q1 2:10 · 3rd & 10 USM 25 · +3.4 EPA
    −.10
  2. 2Southern Miss
    Clay run, −2
    (10:38) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush right for 2 yards loss to the USM12 (#5 N.Cairo; #24 M.Robinson III)
    Q1 10:38 · 1st & Goal USM 10 · −1.2 ARST EPA
    Q1 10:38 · 1st & Goal USM 10 · −1.2 ARST EPA
    −.09
  3. 3Arkansas State
    Offside on USM
    PENALTY USM Offside (#0 C.Triplett) 5 yards from ASU32 to ASU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
    Q1 13:34 · 4th & 3 ARST 32 · +3.3 EPA
    Q1 13:34 · 4th & 3 ARST 32 · +3.3 EPA
    +.08
  4. 4Arkansas State
    Henderson intercepts Lyddy
    Shotgun #18 L.Lyddy pass intercepted by #0 D.Henderson at ASU49, End Of Play
    Q1 0:31 · 3rd & 5 USM 46 · −3.7 USM EPA
    Q1 0:31 · 3rd & 5 USM 46 · −3.7 USM EPA
    +.07
  5. 5Arkansas State
    Owens run, −1
    (11:03) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USM21 (#13 M.Haygood) PENALTY USM Face Mask (#13 M.Haygood) 11 yard from USM21 to USM10, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 11:03 · 3rd & 6 USM 20 · +1.7 EPA
    Q1 11:03 · 3rd & 6 USM 20 · +1.7 EPA
    +.07

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 136 plays