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FINAL · FS1 · MCLANE STADIUM
TCUTCU
173-3 · 1-2 Big 12
17
FINAL
BAYBaylor
64-2 · 2-1 Big 12
6
TCU +3.5 COVERUNDER 50.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP TCU 39%→POSTGAME WE TCU 70%
McLane Stadium · 46,634
Postgame WE
70%TCU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.06BAY −0.22
Success rate
36%BAY 25%
Turnovers
1–2≈ 1.5 pts swing
vs model
−11proj BAY by 4.6
Plays · pace
149proj 146 · 24.2s

Win probability · full game

TCU LOW 36% · Q1 14:31 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.3

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1TCU
    Craig 67-yd pass to Dwyer
    (14:55) Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at BAYLOR32, for 67 yards to the BAYLOR08 (#5 T.Barnes), 1ST DOWN
    Q3 14:55 · 2nd & 10 TCU 25 · +5.6 EPA
    Q3 14:55 · 2nd & 10 TCU 25 · +5.6 EPA
    +.20
  2. 2TCU
    Hayward sacks Lagway, −6
    (13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BAYLOR41 (#16 K.Hayward)
    Q3 13:19 · 2nd & 9 BAY 47 · −2.2 BAY EPA
    Q3 13:19 · 2nd & 9 BAY 47 · −2.2 BAY EPA
    +.13
  3. 3TCU
    Morris fumble, TCU recovers
    (01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 R.Morris rush right for 0 yards to the TCU41 fumbled by #25 R.Morris at TCU40 forced by #6 K.Jackson recovered by TCU #6 K.Jackson at TCU41, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 R.Morris rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU40 (#6 K.Jackson))
    Q2 1:39 · 1st & 10 TCU 41 · −3.9 BAY EPA
    Q2 1:39 · 1st & 10 TCU 41 · −3.9 BAY EPA
    +.11
  4. 4Baylor
    Lagway 12-yd pass to Freeman
    (11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #6 G.Freeman caught at BAYLOR35, for 12 yards to the BAYLOR39 (#22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWN
    Q2 11:44 · 3rd & 9 BAY 27 · +3.1 EPA
    Q2 11:44 · 3rd & 9 BAY 27 · +3.1 EPA
    −.11
  5. 5TCU
    Craig 42-yd pass to Dwyer
    (04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at BAYLOR50, for 42 yards to the BAYLOR48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BAYLOR Pass Interference declined
    Q3 4:12 · 3rd & 11 TCU 10 · +4.7 EPA
    Q3 4:12 · 3rd & 11 TCU 10 · +4.7 EPA
    +.10

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 149 plays