TCUTCU
173-3 · 1-2 Big 12FINAL
BAYBaylor
64-2 · 2-1 Big 12TCU +3.5 COVERUNDER 50.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP TCU 39%→POSTGAME WE TCU 70%
McLane Stadium · 46,634- Postgame WE
- 70%TCU · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- −0.06BAY −0.22
- Success rate
- 36%BAY 25%
- Turnovers
- 1–2≈ 1.5 pts swing
- vs model
- −11proj BAY by 4.6
- Plays · pace
- 149proj 146 · 24.2s
Win probability · full game
TCU LOW 36% · Q1 14:31 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.3Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Craig 67-yd pass to Dwyer(14:55) Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at BAYLOR32, for 67 yards to the BAYLOR08 (#5 T.Barnes), 1ST DOWNQ3 14:55 · 2nd & 10 TCU 25 · +5.6 EPAQ3 14:55 · 2nd & 10 TCU 25 · +5.6 EPA+.20 - 2Hayward sacks Lagway, −6(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BAYLOR41 (#16 K.Hayward)Q3 13:19 · 2nd & 9 BAY 47 · −2.2 BAY EPAQ3 13:19 · 2nd & 9 BAY 47 · −2.2 BAY EPA+.13
- 3Morris fumble, TCU recovers(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 R.Morris rush right for 0 yards to the TCU41 fumbled by #25 R.Morris at TCU40 forced by #6 K.Jackson recovered by TCU #6 K.Jackson at TCU41, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 R.Morris rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU40 (#6 K.Jackson))Q2 1:39 · 1st & 10 TCU 41 · −3.9 BAY EPAQ2 1:39 · 1st & 10 TCU 41 · −3.9 BAY EPA+.11
- 4
Lagway 12-yd pass to Freeman(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #6 G.Freeman caught at BAYLOR35, for 12 yards to the BAYLOR39 (#22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNQ2 11:44 · 3rd & 9 BAY 27 · +3.1 EPAQ2 11:44 · 3rd & 9 BAY 27 · +3.1 EPA−.11 - 5Craig 42-yd pass to Dwyer(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at BAYLOR50, for 42 yards to the BAYLOR48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BAYLOR Pass Interference declinedQ3 4:12 · 3rd & 11 TCU 10 · +4.7 EPAQ3 4:12 · 3rd & 11 TCU 10 · +4.7 EPA+.10
Player EPA
Total · game
- Jordan Dwyer · WR6 REC · 150 YDS+11.4
- Gavin Freeman · WR7 REC · 76 YDS+8.6
- Jaden Craig · QB21/36 · 294 YDS · 2 TD · 1 INT · 4 SACKS+6.6
- Ed Small · WR7 REC · 91 YDS · 1 TD · FUM+6.6
- DJ Lagway · QB22/53 · 256 YDS · 1 INT · FUM · 4 SACKS−8.4
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 327 | 310 |
| Plays | 66 | 87 |
| Yards / play | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| EPA / play | −0.06 | −0.22 |
| Success rate | 36% | 25% |
| Explosive plays | 4 | 7 |
| Havoc rate | 14% | 19% |
| 3rd down | 7–16 | 6–21 |
| Pts / opportunity | 2.43 | 0.75 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Time of possession | 31:36 | 28:24 |
| Postgame WE | 70% | 30% |