

FSUFlorida State
353-4 · 1-3 ACCFINAL/2OT


MIAMiami
436-0 · 4-0 ACCFSU +20.5 COVEROVER 57.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP MIA 90%→POSTGAME WE MIA 49%
Hard Rock Stadium · 66,790- Postgame WE
- 49%MIA · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.22FSU +0.11
- Success rate
- 44%FSU 33%
- Turnovers
- 0–1≈ 3.5 pts swing
- vs model
- +8proj MIA by 21.3
- Plays · pace
- 142proj 130 · 25.4s
Win probability · full game
MIA LOW 9% · OT · EXCITEMENT INDEX 9.2Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1

Mallory 25-yd TD run(00:00) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush left for 25 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)OT 0:00 · 2nd & 10 · 28–35 → 35–35 · +3.6 EPAOT 0:00 · 28–35 → 35–35 · +3.6 EPA+.71 - 2

Daniels 20-yd TD to Robinson(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep left to #0 D.Robinson caught at UM00, for 20 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)OT 0:00 · 3rd & 5 · 28–28 → 28–35 · +3.6 EPAOT 0:00 · 28–28 → 28–35 · +3.6 EPA−.50 - 3

Fletcher run, no gain(14:16) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU18 (#10 C.Jones), TURNOVER ON DOWNSQ4 14:16 · 4th & 1 FSU 18 · turnover on downs · −3.6 MIA EPAQ4 14:16 · 4th & 1 FSU 18 · −3.6 MIA EPA−.21 - 4

St kneels(00:28) Kneel down by Florida St. at FSU04 for loss of 2 yardsQ4 0:28 · 2nd & 5 FSU 6 · 0.0 EPAQ4 0:28 · 2nd & 5 FSU 6 · 0.0 EPA−.21 - 5

Mallory 3-yd TD run(09:37) #21 J.Mallory rush left for 3 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:33 #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Q4 9:37 · 1st & Goal · 14–21 → 21–21 · +1.1 EPAQ4 9:37 · 14–21 → 21–21 · +1.1 EPA+.15
Player EPA
Total · game

Ashton Daniels · QB15/28 · 298 YDS · 4 TD · 1 INT · 31 RUSH YDS+22.5
Malachi Toney · WR11 REC · 154 YDS · 2 TD · 31 RUSH YDS+14.0
Darian Mensah · QB23/34 · 326 YDS · 3 TD · 1 INT · 1 SACK+12.5
Duce Robinson · WR5 REC · 113 YDS · 2 TD+7.5
Ousmane Kromah · RB14 CAR · 44 YDS−9.7
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 443 | 583 |
| Plays | 64 | 78 |
| Yards / play | 6.9 | 7.5 |
| EPA / play | +0.11 | +0.22 |
| Success rate | 33% | 44% |
| Explosive plays | 9 | 13 |
| Havoc rate | 8% | 6% |
| 3rd down | 5–13 | 8–15 |
| Pts / opportunity | 3.18 | 3.91 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Time of possession | 22:40 | 37:20 |
| Postgame WE | 51% | 49% |

