OKSTOklahoma State
324-2 · 2-1 Big 12FINAL
HOUHouston
356-1 · 3-1 Big 12OKST +4 COVEROVER 62.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP HOU 81%→POSTGAME WE HOU 60%
TDECU Stadium · 42,544- Postgame WE
- 60%HOU · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.41OKST +0.26
- Success rate
- 56%OKST 54%
- Turnovers
- 1–1≈ 0.6 pts swing
- vs model
- +3proj HOU by 14.5
- Plays · pace
- 130proj 143 · 27.7s
Win probability · full game
HOU LOW 51% · Q1 9:55 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.7Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Mestemaker 66-yd TD to HawkinsCaleb Hawkins 66 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Drew Mestemaker Pass to Justin Bowick for Two-Point Conversion)Q4 11:57 · 1st & 10 · 28–17 → 28–25 · +5.3 EPAQ4 11:57 · 28–17 → 28–25 · +5.3 EPA−.17 - 2
Weigman 21-yd TD to Thomas(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep right to #0 A.Thomas caught at OSU00, for 21 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU Pass Interference declined #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Q3 2:05 · 4th & 3 · 21–17 → 28–17 · +4.8 EPAQ3 2:05 · 21–17 → 28–17 · +4.8 EPA+.15 - 3Weigman 48-yd TD to Young(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep left to #2 K.Young caught at OSU14, for 48 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:48, 1ST DOWN #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards) PENALTY #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards) PENALTY OSU Leverage 15 yards from OSU00 to HOU50 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards) PENALTY OSU Leverage (#94 B.Rigsby) 15 yards from OSU00 to HOU50Q4 9:55 · 1st & 10 · 28–25 → 35–25 · +4.2 EPAQ4 9:55 · 28–25 → 35–25 · +4.2 EPA+.15
- 4Weigman 44-yd run(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 44 yards gain to the OSU28 (#32 E.Wesloski), 1ST DOWNQ3 4:02 · 3rd & 7 HOU 28 · +5.0 EPAQ3 4:02 · 3rd & 7 HOU 28 · +5.0 EPA+.11
- 5Weigman 7-yd TD to Thomas(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #0 A.Thomas caught at OSU00, for 7 yards to the OSU00 QB hurried by #10 J.Williams TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:22, 1ST DOWN #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Q2 2:25 · 3rd & 5 · 7–3 → 14–3 · +3.0 EPAQ2 2:25 · 7–3 → 14–3 · +3.0 EPA+.10
Player EPA
Total · game
- Conner Weigman · QB24/33 · 343 YDS · 5 TD · 1 INT · 52 RUSH YDS+28.0
- Drew Mestemaker · QB22/34 · 365 YDS · 3 TD · 1 INT · 34 RUSH YDS+16.4
- Amare Thomas · WR7 REC · 126 YDS · 2 TD+16.3
- Will James · DBINT · 2 PBU+6.9
- Trent Walker · WR7 REC · 104 YDS · 1 TD+6.1
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | OKST | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 499 | 505 |
| Plays | 59 | 73 |
| Yards / play | 8.5 | 6.9 |
| EPA / play | +0.26 | +0.41 |
| Success rate | 54% | 56% |
| Explosive plays | 12 | 10 |
| Havoc rate | 10% | 19% |
| 3rd down | 3–8 | 7–13 |
| Pts / opportunity | 3.43 | 4.38 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Time of possession | 24:48 | 35:12 |
| Postgame WE | 41% | 60% |