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FINAL · ESPNU · ALAMODOME
NAVYNavy
342-4 · 1-3 American
34
FINAL
UTSAUTSA
386-1 · 3-0 American
38
NAVY +5.5 COVEROVER 52.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP UTSA 60%→POSTGAME WE UTSA 60%
Alamodome · 23,297
Postgame WE
60%UTSA · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.25NAVY +0.44
Success rate
44%NAVY 50%
Turnovers
0–0
vs model
+4proj UTSA by 4.1
Plays · pace
126proj 130 · 28.6s

Win probability · full game

UTSA LOW 25% · Q2 14:11 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 7.1

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Navy
    Gutierrez 92-yd TD to Collins
    (12:58) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete deep left to #84 J.Collins caught at NAVY30, for 92 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:47, 1ST DOWN #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) PENALTY #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) PENALTY UTSA Offside declined
    Q4 12:58 · 2nd & 10 · 24–20 → 24–27 · +7.9 EPA
    Q4 12:58 · 24–20 → 24–27 · +7.9 EPA
    −.34
  2. 2UTSA
    McCown 41-yd TD to Peterson
    (02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #28 A.Peterson caught at NAVY36, for 41 yards to the NAVY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:24, 1ST DOWN #3 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges)
    Q4 2:33 · 1st & 10 · 31–34 → 38–34 · +4.5 EPA
    Q4 2:33 · 31–34 → 38–34 · +4.5 EPA
    +.30
  3. 3Navy
    Woodson 7-yd TD run
    (04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush right for 7 yards gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:50 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
    Q4 4:53 · 3rd & Goal · 31–27 → 31–34 · +3.1 EPA
    Q4 4:53 · 31–27 → 31–34 · +3.1 EPA
    −.22
  4. 4UTSA
    McCown 22-yd pass to Wilson
    (09:04) #2 O.McCown pass complete deep left to #84 A.Wilson caught at NAVY32, for 22 yards to the NAVY31 (#8 A.Rose), 1ST DOWN
    Q4 9:04 · 4th & 3 UTSA 47 · +3.9 EPA
    Q4 9:04 · 4th & 3 UTSA 47 · +3.9 EPA
    +.22
  5. 5Navy
    Woodson 63-yd pass to Gutierrez
    (07:30) #5 B.Woodson pass complete short left to #8 J.Gutierrez caught at NAVY48, for 63 yards to the UTSA01 (#20 Z.Morris), 1ST DOWN
    Q4 7:30 · 2nd & 1 NAVY 36 · +4.4 EPA
    Q4 7:30 · 2nd & 1 NAVY 36 · +4.4 EPA
    −.22

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 126 plays