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FINAL · ESPN+ · HORNET STADIUM
OHIOOhio
485-2 · 3-0 MAC
48
FINAL
SACSacramento State
71-6 · 0-4 MAC
7
OHIO −17.5 COVEROVER 46.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP OHIO 76%→POSTGAME WE OHIO 100%
Hornet Stadium · 17,661
Postgame WE
100%OHIO · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.44SAC −0.16
Success rate
54%SAC 31%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 4.6 pts swing
vs model
+41proj OHIO by 11.9
Plays · pace
115proj 130 · 31.3s

Win probability · full game

OHIO LOW 88% · Q1 13:30 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 2.9

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Sacramento State
    Sharman 7-yd pass to Coleman
    (13:35) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #2 M.Coleman caught at SAC34, for 7 yards to the SAC39 (#4 D.James-Hamilton), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 13:35 · 3rd & 3 SAC 32 · +1.6 EPA
    Q1 13:35 · 3rd & 3 SAC 32 · +1.6 EPA
    −.04
  2. 2Ohio
    Gillison sacks Sharman, −5
    (13:04) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman sacked for loss of 5 yards to the SAC34 (#9 T.Gillison)
    Q1 13:04 · 1st & 10 SAC 39 · −1.3 SAC EPA
    Q1 13:04 · 1st & 10 SAC 39 · −1.3 SAC EPA
    +.03
  3. 3Ohio
    Poulos 17-yd pass to Neer
    (11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Poulos pass complete short middle to #15 R.Neer caught at Ohio29, for 17 yards to the Ohio35 (#3 A.Wallace), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SAC Personal Foul 15 yards from Ohio35 to Ohio50, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 11:28 · 2nd & 10 OHIO 18 · +2.8 EPA
    Q1 11:28 · 2nd & 10 OHIO 18 · +2.8 EPA
    +.03
  4. 4Ohio
    Brune 2-yd run
    (06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SAC12 (#9 M.Tullis), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 6:56 · 4th & 1 SAC 14 · +1.9 EPA
    Q1 6:56 · 4th & 1 SAC 14 · +1.9 EPA
    +.02
  5. 5Ohio
    Hryszko 50-yd FG good
    (14:58) #47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #52 N.Hemer), clock 14:56
    Q2 14:58 · 4th & 8 · 7–0 → 10–0 · +2.6 EPA
    Q2 14:58 · 7–0 → 10–0 · +2.6 EPA
    +.02

Player EPA

Total · game