

FRESFresno State
234-3 · 1-2 Pac-12FINAL


SDSUSan Diego State
263-4 · 2-1 Pac-12SDSU +6.5 COVEROVER 46.5
PREGAME WP SDSU 35%→POSTGAME WE SDSU 54%
Snapdragon Stadium · 21,847- Postgame WE
- 54%SDSU · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.04FRES −0.06
- Success rate
- 43%FRES 45%
- Turnovers
- 1–1≈ 1.0 pts swing
- vs model
- −3proj FRES by 6.5
- Plays · pace
- 125proj 119 · 28.8s
Win probability · full game
SDSU LOW 25% · Q3 4:13 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.6Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1

DiLeva 53-yd FG good(01:00) #96 C.DiLeva field goal attempt from 53 yards GOOD (H: #89 T.Dorje, LS: #64 C.Poulson), clock 00:57Q4 1:00 · 4th & 8 · 23–23 → 26–23 · +2.3 EPAQ4 1:00 · 23–23 → 26–23 · +2.3 EPA+.28 - 2

Saunders 26-yd pass to Napier(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 S.Saunders pass complete short left to #24 J.Napier caught at SDSU47, for 26 yards to the FS37 (#18 L.Studt), 1ST DOWNQ4 2:18 · 3rd & 10 SDSU 37 · +2.3 EPAQ4 2:18 · 3rd & 10 SDSU 37 · +2.3 EPA+.23 - 3

Mandal 29-yd pass to Avit(05:58) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete deep left to #0 E.Avit caught at SDSU03, for 29 yards to the SDSU02 (#29 J.Hunter), 1ST DOWNQ4 5:58 · 2nd & 10 SDSU 31 · +3.3 EPAQ4 5:58 · 2nd & 10 SDSU 31 · +3.3 EPA−.20 - 4

Emanuel 7-yd TD to Napier(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Emanuel, Jr. pass complete short left to #24 J.Napier caught at FS12, for 7 yards to the FS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:00 #96 C.DiLeva kick attempt good (H: #89 T.Dorje, LS: #64 C.Poulson)Q4 12:00 · 3rd & Goal · 16–17 → 23–17 · +3.1 EPAQ4 12:00 · 16–17 → 23–17 · +3.1 EPA+.20 - 5

Fangupo fumble, FS recovers(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 K.Fangupo rush left for 1 yard loss to the SDSU38 fumbled by #47 K.Fangupo at SDSU39 recovered by FS #11 D.Hampsten at SDSU38, End Of PlayQ2 6:39 · 2nd & 10 SDSU 39 · −4.4 SDSU EPAQ2 6:39 · 2nd & 10 SDSU 39 · −4.4 SDSU EPA−.17
Player EPA
Total · game

Jordan Napier · WR3 REC · 55 YDS · 1 TD+6.8
Jayden Denegal · QB7/10 · 112 YDS · 1 TD · 0 INT · 1 SACK+6.1
Bert Emanuel Jr. · WR2 REC · 34 YDS+5.9
Lucky Sutton · RB18 CAR · 110 YDS · 1 REC · 4 REC YDS · FUM−5.6
Jayden Mandal · QB13/25 · 141 YDS · 0 INT · 6 SACKS−11.0
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 276 | 384 |
| Plays | 65 | 62 |
| Yards / play | 4.2 | 6.2 |
| EPA / play | −0.06 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 45% | 43% |
| Explosive plays | 6 | 7 |
| Havoc rate | 18% | 16% |
| 3rd down | 4–13 | 6–14 |
| Pts / opportunity | 2.30 | 1.90 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Time of possession | 31:34 | 28:26 |
| Postgame WE | 46% | 54% |

