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FINAL · ESPN2 · SIMMONS BANK LIBERTY STADIUM
ECUEast Carolina
343-4 · 1-2 American
34
FINAL/OT
MEMMemphis
416-2 · 3-1 American
41
ECU +10.5 COVEROVER 55.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP MEM 69%→POSTGAME WE MEM 65%
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 27,788
Postgame WE
65%MEM · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.15ECU +0.04
Success rate
48%ECU 33%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 2.6 pts swing
vs model
+7proj MEM by 8.3
Plays · pace
156proj 133 · 23.1s

Win probability · full game

MEM LOW 18% · Q3 10:14 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 9.5

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Memphis
    Tuck 42-yd punt
    (11:25) #30 H.Tuck punt 42 yards to the ECU27 muffed by #0 K.Pearson at ECU27 recovered by MEM #26 J.Lewis at ECU28, End Of Play
    Q4 11:25 · 4th & 4 MEM 31 · +5.8 EPA
    Q4 11:25 · 4th & 4 MEM 31 · +5.8 EPA
    +.20
  2. 2Memphis
    Stokes 20-yd pass to Davis
    (00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep middle to #13 J.Davis caught at ECU05, for 20 yards to the ECU05 (#22 A.Ross), 1ST DOWN
    OT 0:00 · 1st & 10 ECU 25 · +1.5 EPA
    OT 0:00 · 1st & 10 ECU 25 · +1.5 EPA
    +.18
  3. 3East Carolina
    Griffis 20-yd TD to Sides
    (01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Griffis pass complete deep middle to #7 L.Sides caught at MEM00, for 20 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:30, 1ST DOWN #43 N.Perez kick attempt good (H: #83 E.Huether, LS: #53 B.Shirley)
    Q4 1:32 · 4th & 9 · 34–27 → 34–34 · +5.1 EPA
    Q4 1:32 · 34–27 → 34–34 · +5.1 EPA
    −.17
  4. 4Memphis
    Stokes 59-yd TD to Hayes
    (13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep right to #11 J.Hayes caught at ECU10, for 59 yards to the ECU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:37, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons)
    Q3 13:42 · 2nd & 9 · 3–16 → 10–16 · +5.5 EPA
    Q3 13:42 · 3–16 → 10–16 · +5.5 EPA
    +.16
  5. 5East Carolina
    Griffis 16-yd pass to Sides
    (09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Griffis pass complete short right to #7 L.Sides caught at ECU36, for 16 yards to the ECU41 (#12 B.Mwamba), 1ST DOWN
    Q4 9:46 · 1st & 10 ECU 25 · +1.7 EPA
    Q4 9:46 · 1st & 10 ECU 25 · +1.7 EPA
    −.15

Player EPA

Total · game

Play-by-play

Box score

Team box score, East Carolina at Memphis
StatECUMEM
Total yards421484
Plays7780
Yards / play5.56.1
EPA / play+0.04+0.15
Success rate33%48%
Explosive plays1212
Havoc rate8%18%
3rd down5–174–15
Pts / opportunity2.833.42
Turnovers10
Time of possession29:0130:59
Postgame WE35%65%