Duke vs Virginia

DUKEDuke

195-2 · 2-2 ACC

FINAL

UVAVirginia

164-4 · 2-3 ACC

DUKE +2.5 COVERUNDER 47.5MODEL EDGE HIT

PREGAME WP DUKE 49%→POSTGAME WE DUKE 60%

Scott Stadium · 45,138

Win probability · full game

DUKE LOW 23% · Q4 5:15 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.8

Ranked by |win probability added|

1
Sheppard 28-yd TD to Keefe
(01:20) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard pass complete deep right to #18 B.Keefe caught at UVA01, for 28 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:14, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick attempt failed (H: #38 A.Zamani, LS: #52 J.Fitzgerald)
Q4 1:20 · 2nd & 8 · 13–16 → 19–16 · +3.9 EPA
Q4 1:20 · 13–16 → 19–16 · +3.9 EPA
+.21
2
Robinson intercepts Eget
(02:34) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass intercepted by #5 K.Robinson at UVA24 #5 K.Robinson return 0 yards to the UVA24 (#17 J.Richardson)
Q3 2:34 · 2nd & 5 UVA 29 · −4.8 DUKE EPA
Q3 2:34 · 2nd & 5 UVA 29 · −4.8 DUKE EPA
−.15
3
Davis run, −1
(11:23) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UVA06 (#91 O.Wafle; #10 T.Reed)
Q4 11:23 · 3rd & 8 UVA 7 · −1.8 UVA EPA
Q4 11:23 · 3rd & 8 UVA 7 · −1.8 UVA EPA
+.14
4
Pribula fumble, DUKE recovers
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 11 yards gain to the DUKE30 fumbled by #7 B.Pribula at DUKE42 forced by #30 W.Felder Jr. recovered by DUKE #10 T.Reed at DUKE30, End Of Play
Q3 10:55 · 1st & 5 DUKE 41 · −4.6 UVA EPA
Q3 10:55 · 1st & 5 DUKE 41 · −4.6 UVA EPA
+.13
5
Eget 43-yd pass to Taylor
(10:31) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #15 J.Taylor caught at DUKE48, for 43 yards to the UVA25 (#8 C.Ellis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Q4 10:31 · 1st & 10 DUKE 32 · +2.6 EPA
Q4 10:31 · 1st & 10 DUKE 32 · +2.6 EPA
+.12

Total · game