

DUKEDuke
195-2 · 2-2 ACCFINAL


UVAVirginia
164-4 · 2-3 ACCDUKE +2.5 COVERUNDER 47.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP DUKE 49%→POSTGAME WE DUKE 60%
Scott Stadium · 45,138- Postgame WE
- 60%DUKE · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- −0.09UVA −0.11
- Success rate
- 37%UVA 35%
- Turnovers
- 1–2≈ 0.2 pts swing
- vs model
- −3proj UVA by 0.2
- Plays · pace
- 126proj 134 · 28.6s
Win probability · full game
DUKE LOW 23% · Q4 5:15 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.8Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1

Sheppard 28-yd TD to Keefe(01:20) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard pass complete deep right to #18 B.Keefe caught at UVA01, for 28 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:14, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick attempt failed (H: #38 A.Zamani, LS: #52 J.Fitzgerald)Q4 1:20 · 2nd & 8 · 13–16 → 19–16 · +3.9 EPAQ4 1:20 · 13–16 → 19–16 · +3.9 EPA+.21 - 2

Robinson intercepts Eget(02:34) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass intercepted by #5 K.Robinson at UVA24 #5 K.Robinson return 0 yards to the UVA24 (#17 J.Richardson)Q3 2:34 · 2nd & 5 UVA 29 · −4.8 DUKE EPAQ3 2:34 · 2nd & 5 UVA 29 · −4.8 DUKE EPA−.15 - 3

Davis run, −1(11:23) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UVA06 (#91 O.Wafle; #10 T.Reed)Q4 11:23 · 3rd & 8 UVA 7 · −1.8 UVA EPAQ4 11:23 · 3rd & 8 UVA 7 · −1.8 UVA EPA+.14 - 4

Pribula fumble, DUKE recovers(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 11 yards gain to the DUKE30 fumbled by #7 B.Pribula at DUKE42 forced by #30 W.Felder Jr. recovered by DUKE #10 T.Reed at DUKE30, End Of PlayQ3 10:55 · 1st & 5 DUKE 41 · −4.6 UVA EPAQ3 10:55 · 1st & 5 DUKE 41 · −4.6 UVA EPA+.13 - 5

Eget 43-yd pass to Taylor(10:31) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #15 J.Taylor caught at DUKE48, for 43 yards to the UVA25 (#8 C.Ellis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNQ4 10:31 · 1st & 10 DUKE 32 · +2.6 EPAQ4 10:31 · 1st & 10 DUKE 32 · +2.6 EPA+.12
Player EPA
Total · game

Kam Robinson · LB1 SACK · 1 TFL · INT · 2 TKL+6.6
John Rogers · TE5 REC · 65 YDS+6.3
Will Felder Jr. · LBFF · 3 TKL+4.6
Dan Mahan · QB2/5 · 17 YDS · 0 INT · 1 SACK−3.9
Xay Davis · RB5 CAR · 2 YDS−4.8
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 327 | 353 |
| Plays | 50 | 77 |
| Yards / play | 6.5 | 4.6 |
| EPA / play | −0.09 | −0.11 |
| Success rate | 37% | 35% |
| Explosive plays | 7 | 9 |
| Havoc rate | 18% | 16% |
| 3rd down | 2–10 | 5–17 |
| Pts / opportunity | 2.38 | 1.78 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Time of possession | 21:13 | 38:47 |
| Postgame WE | 60% | 40% |

