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FINAL · ESPN2 · CHAPMAN STADIUM
ARMYArmy
385-2 · 4-1 American
38
FINAL
TLSATulsa
354-4 · 1-3 American
35
ARMY −1.5 COVEROVER 53.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP ARMY 47%→POSTGAME WE ARMY 46%
Chapman Stadium · 20,247
Postgame WE
54%TLSA · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.13TLSA +0.31
Success rate
38%TLSA 45%
Turnovers
0–0
vs model
−3proj TLSA by 1.3
Plays · pace
123proj 130 · 29.3s

Win probability · full game

ARMY LOW 6% · Q4 9:37 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.8

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Army
    Hellums 16-yd run
    (00:11) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 16 yards gain to the Tulsa36, out of bounds at Tulsa36, 1ST DOWN
    Q4 0:11 · 2nd & 10 ARMY 48 · +0.7 EPA
    Q4 0:11 · 2nd & 10 ARMY 48 · +0.7 EPA
    +.27
  2. 2Army
    Harris-Miller J.Bousum sacks Hayes, −4
    (01:07) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa25 (#52 K.Harris-Miller, #99 J.Bousum)
    Q4 1:07 · 3rd & 6 TLSA 29 · −1.0 TLSA EPA
    Q4 1:07 · 3rd & 6 TLSA 29 · −1.0 TLSA EPA
    +.23
  3. 3Army
    Jones 50-yd FG good
    Dawson Jones 50 Yd Field Goal
    Q4 0:00 · 2nd & 7 · 35–35 → 38–35 · +2.0 EPA
    Q4 0:00 · 35–35 → 38–35 · +2.0 EPA
    +.20
  4. 4Tulsa
    Jones 59-yd TD run
    (04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush middle for 59 yards gain to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:15, 1ST DOWN #10 O.Carey kick attempt good (H: #29 M.Tulen, LS: #42 A.Fedigan)
    Q3 4:21 · 1st & 10 · 28–21 → 28–28 · +4.8 EPA
    Q3 4:21 · 28–21 → 28–28 · +4.8 EPA
    −.18
  5. 5Army
    Kloska blocks Tulen punt
    (03:57) #29 M.Tulen punt 0 yards to the Tulsa29 blocked by #20 T.Kloska recovered by Army #20 T.Kloska at Tulsa13, End Of Play
    Q4 3:57 · 4th & 8 TLSA 29 · −3.5 TLSA EPA
    Q4 3:57 · 4th & 8 TLSA 29 · −3.5 TLSA EPA
    +.16

Player EPA

Total · game